Nobody ordered this plot twist, but the College Football Playoff bracket got one anyway. UCLA walked into Eugene, beat Oregon 17-15, and talked its way into the projected 12-team field, while LSU lost in overtime at Kentucky and fell right out of it.
Start in Eugene, because that is where the weekend’s loudest noise came from. The Bruins improved to 5-0 with a win at Autzen Stadium, according to ESPN’s Week 6 playoff projections. It was UCLA’s first win there since 2004.
How UCLA Pulled Off the Upset
The recipe was simple: take the ball away. UCLA forced seven turnovers and held an Oregon offense averaging 505.5 yards per game to just 272, per Sports Illustrated. Meanwhile, running back Wayne Knight ran for 103 yards and scored both touchdowns.
That is a lot of damage for a team that ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor gave a 1% preseason shot at the playoff. After Saturday, the same model puts it at 33%. That is a glow-up usually saved for movie montages, and it reshapes the College Football Playoff bracket in a hurry.
Bob Chesney is only in Year 1 at UCLA. The Bruins also lead the nation with 10 interceptions.
Shocking absolutely no one, turnovers travel well.
The College Football Playoff Bracket Shuffle: UCLA In, LSU Out
Now for the part where the bracket gurus disagree with each other. Yahoo Sports lists UCLA as “In” and LSU as “Out,” and it sends the Bruins to Alabama for a first-round game. CBS Sports has UCLA at Texas instead. SI, for its part, has the Bruins as the No. 6 seed, which would mean a first-round game at the Rose Bowl.
So which one is right? None of them yet. These are projections, not the committee’s verdict, so UCLA lands anywhere from sixth to tenth depending on who is holding the marker. If you want to see how the bigger picture could change, our look at the ongoing playoff expansion talks shows where the format may head next.
What Went Wrong for LSU
On the other side of the ledger, No. 10 LSU lost 35-34 in overtime at Kentucky. After scoring a touchdown in the extra period, Kentucky went for two and converted on a Kenny Minchey quarterback keeper, per LSU Athletics. That is a coin-flip call, and Kentucky won it.
LSU’s Sam Leavitt went 25-of-34 for 275 yards with one touchdown and one interception. It was not a bad night through the air. It just was not enough.
CBS describes it as LSU’s second SEC loss. In its view, the Tigers need to win out to get in, and nine wins won’t be enough. That is CBS’s opinion, but the logic is hard to argue with in a 12-team playoff.
Here’s the Thing About UCLA’s Resume
Before you start printing Rose Bowl tickets, here is the fine print. UCLA ranks third in ESPN’s strength of record but only 36th in FPI. The Bruins also entered the Oregon game with the 113th-ranked schedule, according to the SI and ESPN breakdowns.
Translation: the wins are real, but the committee will want more proof. The good news is that the road ahead looks friendly. Five of UCLA’s final seven games are at home, and the schedule skips Ohio State and Indiana.
The Bruins host Wisconsin on Oct. 17, Michigan State on Oct. 24 and Nevada on Oct. 31, all at the Rose Bowl. Then comes a trip to Minnesota on Nov. 7, a home date with Illinois on Nov. 13 and a visit to Michigan on Nov. 21. The regular season ends at home against USC on Nov. 28. ESPN’s FPI gives USC a 55.8% chance to win that one.
UCLA has never made the College Football Playoff. It is one of eight programs SI lists as chasing a first berth this season. Because of that, every weekly update to the CFP bracket will treat the Bruins as a test case. For a look at what a deep run could look like, see our College Football Playoff semifinals preview.
Oregon’s Season Just Got Harder
Oregon had already lost to Oklahoma State this year. Now ESPN says its hopes of reaching the playoff field are “on life support.” An offense that big does not lose by two points while generating only 272 yards without a lot of regret.
What Comes Next in the College Football Playoff Bracket Race
LSU gets a quick chance to answer. The Tigers are back at Tiger Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 17, at 11 a.m. Lane Kiffin is in Year 1 as LSU’s head coach, and he has little margin left. For more on that day’s slate, check our Week 6 guide to every big game.
So the question for the next six weeks is simple: is UCLA a real playoff team, or just the nation’s most entertaining mirage?
