The National Hurricane Center just fixed the numbers that matter most for the Gulf Coast. Its corrected Hurricane Isaias advisory raises the storm surge outlook to as much as 9 feet, and landfall is expected tonight or early Saturday.
At 7 a.m. CDT Friday, Isaias was about 245 miles south of Pensacola, Florida. According to the hurricane center’s corrected Advisory 11A, the storm’s winds were 110 mph. It was moving north-northeast at 15 mph, and the center called it “on the cusp of major hurricane strength.” For the full run-up, see our earlier look at the season’s first hurricane.
What changed in the corrected Hurricane Isaias advisory
The correction applies to storm surge values and areas. Surge is the wall of ocean water pushed ashore by a hurricane’s winds, and it usually kills more people than the wind does. Still, many people only look at the category number.
Here is the worst of it, if the peak surge lands at high tide:
- Alabama-Florida border to Grayton Beach, Florida: 6 to 9 feet
- Grayton Beach to Indian Pass, Florida: 4 to 7 feet
- Dauphin Island to the Alabama-Florida border: 4 to 6 feet
- Mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island, plus Mobile Bay: 3 to 5 feet
Earlier outlooks had put the peak closer to 5 to 7 feet. So the corrected Hurricane Isaias advisory is the one to trust. The forecasters were blunt about what this means: it is a life-threatening situation, and people in the surge areas should follow evacuation orders from local officials.
Hurricane advisory watches and warnings for the Gulf Coast
A Hurricane Warning covers Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida. A Storm Surge Warning runs from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River in Florida. Meanwhile, tropical storm warnings reach into southeastern Louisiana and east along the Florida Big Bend.
Hurricane-force winds extend up to 30 miles from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds reach out up to 185 miles. As a result, even people far from the eye will feel this storm.
The forecasters also told residents that “preparations should be rushed to completion as the weather will go downhill quickly today,” as NBC News reported in its live coverage. Translation: if you are still debating whether to leave, the debate is over.
Isaias is no longer just a wind story
Here’s the thing. Winds grab the headlines, but rain and tornadoes will reach far past the coast. The Isaias advisory calls for 4 to 8 inches of rain across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized totals could hit 15 inches. Flash flooding is likely, and some river flooding could be significant.
A tornado threat begins late this afternoon along the coast. Then it spreads Saturday into eastern Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. In addition, the Isaias storm surge is not the only water risk: the advisory flags up to 10 inches of rain in the Southern Appalachians, an area still raw from Hurricane Helene two years ago, as Fox Weather noted.
Where the NHC advisory leaves Isaias now
The 7 a.m. NHC advisory is already dated. Several outlets, including CBS News and ABC News, report that Isaias has since strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane. Warm Gulf water in the 80s helped it intensify. However, wind shear near the coast could weaken it slightly before landfall.
The exact landfall spot is still uncertain. The hurricane center says anywhere in the warning area tonight or early Saturday. ABC points to the Pensacola-to-Destin stretch Friday evening. A few miles of wobble can swing which town gets the 9-foot surge. That is why the track matters less than the warnings. Our previous Isaias update shows how quickly the picture has shifted.
Governors in Florida, Alabama and Georgia have declared states of emergency, and thousands of National Guard soldiers are being deployed. The National Weather Service has also warned of possible long-duration power outages. So charge the phones, fill the tank and know your route out. Our Friday morning brief has the rest of the day’s headlines.
The next complete Hurricane Isaias advisory is due at 10 a.m. CDT, with updates every three hours after that. Check those numbers, not the ones from this morning. Because by tonight, the only number that counts is how high the water gets.
