Everyone is polling Texas, and nobody seems to be reading from the same page. The latest Texas Senate race poll headline says Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are tied, with Gov. Greg Abbott holding only a narrow lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa. That is how KHOU 11 described it this week. But KHOU did not name the pollster in the clip we could review, so we can’t pin those exact numbers on anyone yet.
Still, here is what we can say with confidence: nearly every recent survey shows two close races in a state Republicans have long treated as home turf. For more on the numbers, see our earlier look at Talarico edging Paxton.
One Texas Senate race poll, many different answers
However, the surveys don’t agree on who is ahead. A roundup of recent Senate polls, compiled by Yahoo News, shows a clear pattern.
- NYT/Siena (Oct. 3): Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%
- Fox News (Oct. 1): Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%
- Big Data Poll (Sept. 27): Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%
- Marist (Sept. 23): Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%
- Texas Southern University (Sept. 22): Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%
- ReconMR (Sept. 17): Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%
Talarico leads in all of them, though some margins sit inside the typical error range. Meanwhile, an Emerson College survey of likely voters had Paxton at 47% and Talarico at 46%. That result is the closest match to the KHOU description. However, its release date isn’t clear, so we won’t assume it is the poll in the clip.
Governor’s race: Texas election polls show a tight contest too
The governor’s race looks a bit different, but the Texas election polls tell a similar story. A YouGov poll of 3,625 registered Texas voters, fielded Sept. 28 to Oct. 5, put Hinojosa at 48% and Abbott at 47%. The margin of error was 3 points, so that is a statistical dead heat. If you want a primer on the challenger, here is who Gina Hinojosa is.
Other polls lean Abbott’s way. Fox News had him up 52% to 47%. Big Data Poll gave him a five-point edge. Marist and NYT/Siena, on the other hand, had Hinojosa ahead by three points. Forecasters still favor the incumbent. The Pollsmax model, updated Oct. 11, gives Abbott an 84.4% chance of winning and rates the race Likely R.
Here’s the thing: age is doing the heavy lifting in Texas Senate polling
So why do the polls scatter so much? Part of the answer is who pollsters think will actually vote, and the Texas Senate polling splits sharply by generation. In the YouGov governor poll, Hinojosa leads 64% to 30% among voters 18 to 29. Abbott leads 61% to 36% among voters 65 and older. Emerson saw the same divide in the Senate race: voters under 50 favor Talarico 53% to 38%, while voters over 50 favor Paxton 53% to 42%.
In short, the race may come down to which generation shows up in bigger numbers. A poll that assumes a younger electorate looks great for Democrats. One that assumes an older electorate looks like business as usual.
A word of caution on the outliers
The NYT/Siena result stands out, with Democrats ahead in both races. Nancy Sims, a University of Houston political science lecturer, told ABC13 that it is not what most polls are saying. That is a fair warning. One poll is a snapshot, and a pile of polls is a trend. Right now the trend says close, not settled, and any Talarico Paxton poll deserves a careful read.
The polls have also moved. Earlier in the summer, Fox 7 Austin reported Abbott at 45% to Hinojosa’s 42%. The gap has narrowed since.
Expect more surveys before Election Day. Once someone confirms which pollster is behind the KHOU clip, we will update the numbers. Until then, the only safe bet is that Texas Republicans are not coasting. Whether the pollsters agree on anything else is another question.
