The campaign ads have finally run out of road: polls are open across America, and Election Day 2026 will decide who controls Congress for the last two years of President Trump’s term. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot, according to CBS News. In short, this is the day the second half of this presidency gets its shape.
Here’s the thing, and it goes beyond the cable-news noise. Whoever wins Congress controls the spending bills, the investigations, the nominations and the fights over tariffs and war powers. As a result, those decisions reach your paycheck, your grocery bill and your mortgage rate. Even the weather matters: Houston voters were told when to vote before storms hit.
Election Day 2026 Math: What Each Party Needs
Start with the Senate. Republicans hold it 53-47, and the 47 includes two independents who caucus with Democrats, according to Fox News. Republicans need 50 seats to keep control, because Vice President JD Vance breaks ties.
The House is tighter. Before this election it stood at 218-214 for Republicans, with three vacancies, per Ballotpedia. Even so, many nonpartisan handicappers point to Democrats retaking it. Meanwhile, Fox rates the Senate a toss-up, so control of Congress could split.
Those are forecasts, not results. Nobody has won anything yet, and we won’t call a race until AP or a major network does.
The Senate Races That Decide the Midterm Elections
Fox lists toss-ups in Alaska, Texas and Iowa. Decision Desk HQ, for its part, calls Iowa, Kansas, Michigan and Texas pivotal to a Senate majority. Texas is a prime example: the Texas Senate race is a toss-up on election eve. In Alaska, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola, and NBC’s polling has them tied at 50%. In Michigan, Republican Mike Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, a Democrat, is also up for reelection.
Fox says Democrats could reach as many as 54 seats if they sweep the competitive races. That is the best case, not the forecast.
The Stakes Both Sides Are Selling
Both parties closed with the volume knob at maximum. “With your vote we will decide: These extremists will be given power or not power,” Trump said Monday, per Yahoo News. DNC Chair Ken Martin said Democrats “can flip the House, take back the Senate, and stop Trump’s harmful agenda.”
History is the backdrop for the 2026 midterms. The party holding the White House hasn’t gained House seats in a midterm since 2002, CBS notes. Midterms are almost always a referendum on the president. Fox lists voters’ top priorities as taxes, immigration, housing costs and crime.
More than 54 million ballots were cast early, a record, according to Fox News. Governors are on the ballot too, in dozens of states. Counts differ by source, with Fox at 36 and Britannica at 39. Abortion rights and voter ID are among the ballot measures.
When You’ll Know on Midterm Election Day
Here is the part the networks bury. Don’t expect a clean answer tonight. Polls close in waves, all times Eastern, per The Hill:
- 6 p.m.: parts of Kentucky and Indiana
- 7 p.m.: Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and most of Florida and New Hampshire
- 7:30 p.m.: West Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina
- 10 p.m.: Montana, Nevada and Utah
- 11 p.m.: California and Washington
- Midnight: Alaska and Hawaii, with some of Alaska closing at 1 a.m.
The balance of power should start to come into focus once most polls close by 10 p.m., The Hill says. But California and Washington accept ballots after Election Day, so their counts take longer. Decision Desk HQ says Alaska’s count could take a couple of weeks. If Senate control comes down to Alaska, nobody should expect an answer tonight.
Anyone still in line when polls close is allowed to vote, so stay in line.
What Happens After Election Night in the New Congress
The new Congress is seated Jan. 3, 2027, and winners of the regular Senate seats begin six-year terms that day. If Democrats win the House, they can block the GOP agenda. If Republicans hold both chambers, Trump finishes his term with majorities behind him.
The honest answer on election night may be “too close to call.” Patience is part of the process, and it beats a wrong call at 11 p.m.
So the real question tonight isn’t just who wins. It’s who can wait.
