The 32-year Democratic drought in Texas just ended, and it ended big. James Talarico won the race.
Texas has a new U.S. senator-elect, and he’s a Democrat. NBC News projected State Rep. James Talarico the winner on election night. The Texas Senate race results show him beating Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and flipping a seat the GOP has held for decades. The Republican Party has not lost a Texas statewide race since 1994.
NBC’s later count, with 65.6% of the vote reporting, had Talarico at 59.6% and tagged him the “Projected Winner.” The AP called it shortly after 10 p.m., and Decision Desk HQ projected a Talarico win as well. Election officials are still counting, and all totals stay unofficial until they certify them.
Why the Texas Senate election outcome is a very big deal
Talarico is the first Democrat to win a Texas U.S. Senate race since 1988. He is also the first Democrat to win any statewide office in Texas since 1994.
That is a 32-year streak, and it ended on a Tuesday night.
Here’s the thing for everyone outside Texas: this seat matters beyond Texas. The win gives Democrats one of the four seats they needed to flip to clinch a Senate majority. Control of the chamber still hinges on the other races, and our look at what the early Senate wins mean for control of Congress breaks down the math.
Still, the biggest red state on the map just stopped being a safe bet for anyone.
What this means for you
Think of the Senate as a tug-of-war over four seats. Democrats needed to flip four to take the majority, and Texas just gave them one. Three more flips would hand them the chamber.
A Democratic Senate would shape which bills reach the president’s desk. It would also decide which judges and cabinet nominees get confirmed. So the Texas result is not just a state story. It moves the odds on what Washington can pass over the next two years.
How we got here
Paxton, a Trump ally, faced impeachment in 2023, and the Texas Senate acquitted him. He then beat Sen. John Cornyn for the GOP nomination. Talarico, an Austin Democrat, won his own primary over Rep. Jasmine Crockett.
Trump and allies spent heavily on the race, using Talarico as a national stand-in for Democrats.
The polls had it close but pointed the right way. The RealClearPolitics average before the election had Talarico ahead 49.1 to 46.5. Early voting told a bigger story: according to NBC and AP data, in-person early votes ran about 59 to 39 for Talarico. The polls clearly undersold him.
It wasn’t just the Senate race, either. NBC News also projected that Democrats take the House, which fits the early Democratic House lead we tracked. NBC also projected that Gina Hinojosa defeats Gov. Greg Abbott in Texas. That is a very long night for Texas Republicans.
What the Talarico Paxton result means next
Talarico will take the seat on Jan. 3, 2027. Counting continues, and the sources we reviewed include no word from Paxton.
Today’s fight over who controls Congress now runs through Texas. The real question is the one every Texas Republican is asking tonight: was this the night the state changed, or just a night when everything went wrong at once?
