Byron Donalds beat David Jolly 50.1% to 48.7%, a gap of roughly 115,000 votes, to become Florida’s next governor. NBC News reports that the Republican congressman won on Tuesday night and will become the state’s first Black governor, according to NBC News.
Here is the wallet impact: the man who takes over from Ron DeSantis has promised to go after insurance and property tax bills. The Florida governor race also landed on a night when the exit polls handed Trump his lowest midterm approval mark.
How close was the Donalds governor win?
Closer than Republicans wanted. With 98.1% of the expected vote counted, the NBC News Decision Desk had Donalds at 50.1% and Jolly at 48.7%. That is about 4.09 million votes to 3.97 million, or 1.4 points. NPR cites an Associated Press race call for Donalds.
The count is still unofficial. I have not seen a concession from Jolly, so treat the final numbers as unsettled until the state certifies them.
That margin matters because of what came before it. Days earlier, Axios reported Republicans were “white-knuckled”, with some internal estimates having Donalds possibly down by as many as 500,000 votes entering Election Day. Most public polls showed him narrowly ahead. Republicans led in early ballots by only about three points.
Instead, he won. Florida Republicans spent a week chewing their nails over a state they have owned since 1994.
What history did the Donalds Florida victory make?
Donalds, 48, spent two terms in the Florida House and two in Congress. He won the Republican nomination in the Aug. 18 primary, and Trump endorsed him in May at a rally in The Villages. “This guy’s gonna be a great governor,” Trump said, per Fox 35 Orlando.
He becomes Florida’s first Black governor. He is also the first elected Black Republican governor. His Donalds Florida victory also extends a streak. NBC calls him Florida’s fifth consecutive Republican governor, and no Democrat has won the office since 1994.
Jolly is a former Republican congressman who ran this time as a Democrat. Bryan Avila of Miami-Dade will serve as Donalds’ lieutenant governor. For more on how another governor’s race broke the other way, see how Georgia flipped to Democrats for the first time in 24 years.
What will Byron Donalds as Florida governor mean for your wallet?
Donalds’ own priorities, as listed during the campaign, read like a list of what Florida families complain about:
- Protecting DeSantis-era tort reforms, which aim at property insurance costs
- School choice
- Efforts to reduce property taxes
- Immigration enforcement
- Everglades restoration and a proposed Florida Coastal Corridor
Insurance and property taxes are where most Floridians will judge the new Florida governor-elect first. Anyone who has opened a homeowners’ renewal notice lately knows why. Lower bills are easy to promise. The hard part comes when the legislature has to decide who pays for the cuts.
The DeSantis question
Donalds also inherits a complicated relationship. The state constitution barred DeSantis from seeking a third term, and NBC reports the two have had an icy relationship, even as Donalds leaned on DeSantis’ endorsement late in the race.
Meanwhile, NPR notes Donalds took Trump’s name off his campaign website in September, then rallied with Trump days before the vote. That is a lot of balancing for one campaign. Trump, for his part, skipped two rallies for a 72-hour phone blitz in the final stretch.
The Florida governor race also leaves unanswered questions about his record. Axios Tampa Bay reported in September that he had not said whether he stands by parts of his state legislative record, including a 2017 Sunshine Law bill that critics said would have made the law “meaningless.”
What happens next after the Donalds win?
The state still has to canvass and certify the results, and I could not find a date. With a margin this narrow, watch whether a recount comes into play. A concession from Jolly would settle it faster.
Fox 35 reports that Donalds will take the oath as Florida’s 47th governor on Jan. 5, 2027. His House term ends Jan. 3, so his Florida 19th District seat will sit vacant, and that means another race down the road.
