Democrat Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan’s open Senate seat by roughly 6 points, becoming the first Muslim ever elected to the U.S. Senate, according to NBC News’ projection. The Michigan Senate race went to the progressive former health official over Republican Mike Rogers, and Washington just got a lot more interesting.
Here’s the number that should get attention. Donald Trump carried Michigan by about 1.4 points in 2024. This year, Decision Desk HQ shows El-Sayed ahead by roughly 6.8. That’s a swing of more than eight points in two years.
The AP called the contest at 2:27 a.m. Wednesday, with El-Sayed ahead by nearly 6 points and about 85% of ballots counted, BridgeDetroit reports. He had already declared victory about an hour earlier.
The Michigan Senate race by the numbers
The vote count is still moving, but the shape is clear. As of 2:21 a.m. Eastern, Decision Desk HQ had El-Sayed at 2,109,239 votes (51.7%) to Rogers’ 1,889,000 (46.3%). Libertarian Lydia Christensen also took about 1%. However, those tallies are unofficial, and outlets differ on the exact margin, from roughly 5.4 points to about 6.
Still, the pre-election hype overshot. A final NYT/Siena poll had El-Sayed up 11, per The Detroit News. The real result came in much smaller.
Who won the Michigan Senate seat, and how
El-Sayed was born in Michigan to Egyptian immigrant parents. He ran the Detroit and Wayne County health departments and lost a run for governor in 2018. His platform centers on single-payer health care and limiting corporate money in politics, NPR reports.
In fact, he took the long road to get here. He beat Rep. Haley Stevens in the August primary with 48.5%, overcoming roughly $65 million in outside spending. Days before the election, Stevens endorsed Rogers. El-Sayed’s campaign says it raised $1.2 million in four hours after that, The Hill reports.
Rogers and his allies outspent El-Sayed’s side by roughly 3 to 2. Wikipedia pegs total spending at more than $243 million, which would make it the most expensive race in Michigan history. That’s a lot of money to lose by about six points.
The final weeks got ugly. Trump called El-Sayed a “jihadist,” and Rogers pushed claims about Muslim Brotherhood ties. The Detroit News calls those claims unfounded. WLNS reports that Democrats and local religious leaders criticized them as anti-Muslim rhetoric.
The exit poll found Muslim voters, about 2% of the state’s population, backed El-Sayed 92% to 8%. That’s a loyal bloc. Even so, it’s far too small to explain a six-point win on its own.
What the El-Sayed Senate win means for Michigan voters
Here’s the thing: this was Rogers’ second straight Senate loss. He narrowly lost in 2024. And no Republican has won a Michigan Senate race since 1994.
Democrats also held the seat itself. Sen. Gary Peters is retiring, and Democrats have held the seat since 1979. That’s why one analyst take says the win doesn’t meaningfully tip the Senate balance, since both of Michigan’s seats were already Democratic. Our Election Day look at who controls Congress explains what was at stake.
The bigger story is about a message. El-Sayed said in his speech: “We showed that in a battle between the money and the many that the many can win,” Al Jazeera reports. Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., said the result shows “progressives can win across the country.” Expect that argument to echo through the Democratic Party for a while.
He also had a parting shot for his opponent: “So Mike, enjoy your retirement.”
Promises are easy on a campaign stage. The Senate floor is a tougher room, and a freshman who campaigned on single-payer health care will find out just how tough.
