Three tropical systems are now bearing down on North America at once. The Hurricane Simon Mexico landfall forecast is the one worrying forecasters most. Simon is intensifying off Mexico’s Pacific coast. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rachel is aimed at Baja California and the Southwest. Hurricane Isaias, for its part, is closing in on the northern Gulf Coast.
That is not a normal Friday. It is a lot of weather, and it is landing in three different places.
Hurricane Simon Mexico landfall: what forecasters expect
Simon was a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, and the National Hurricane Center expects it to get much stronger. The Associated Press reported that the storm is forecast to approach Mexico’s coast as a major hurricane this weekend. Reuters put its winds at 110 mph, close to Category 3 strength.
The forecast calls for Simon to turn north. It should then pass very near or over the west-central coast late Saturday or Sunday. Per Mexico News Daily’s read of the advisories, the storm should peak as a Category 4 with winds near 145 mph. Whether it hits Jalisco or Colima is still an open question.
The rain may be the bigger threat. Forecasts call for 8 to 15 inches across southwestern Mexico, with isolated totals far higher. In fact, Reuters cited up to 30 inches in parts of Michoacán, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit. That is a mudslide-and-flash-flood amount, not a drizzle.
The National Hurricane Center did not mince words. It warned that “catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are likely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico,” as quoted by The Weather Channel.
This is also a major tourist region, home to resorts and fishing towns around Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo. Authorities have already ordered preventive evacuations in Cihuatlán, Jalisco. A state civil protection director put the stakes plainly. If officials “let our guard down and try to come up with a last-minute action plan, it is highly likely that lives will be lost.”
Simon could become the second hurricane to make landfall in Mexico this Pacific season. Polo struck Baja California Sur on Sept. 28.
Rachel’s rare turn toward Southern California
Rachel was a major hurricane earlier. It is now a tropical storm with winds near 60 mph, and forecasters expect it to weaken further. Even so, the track is unusual. The Weather Channel reports that Rachel could keep tropical-storm status until a Saturday-night landfall on the northern Baja Peninsula. It could then reach the lower deserts of southeast California early Sunday.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Southern California, which The Weather Channel framed as the first since 2023. That is a rare sight for the region.
The bigger impact is likely moisture. Rachel’s rain could cause flash flooding in Utah and Arizona from late this weekend into Monday, according to the Deseret News. There is an odd silver lining, too: it may give the drought-stricken Colorado River watershed a small boost.
Meanwhile, Pacific hurricane Simon will keep the biggest share of forecasters’ attention. Rachel is the warm-up act.
Isaias bears down on the Gulf Coast
Isaias is the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 and the ninth named storm of the season. It is also the latest first hurricane in the modern 60-year era, per Mexico News Daily. The previous latest first hurricane arrived on Sept. 11, so this one blew past the old record by weeks.
EarthSky reported that Isaias reached Category 3 with 120 mph winds early Friday, about 245 miles south of Pensacola. Landfall was forecast for Friday night near the Alabama-Florida line. Storm surge could reach 7 feet from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, through Mobile Bay to Indian Pass, Florida. Up to 8 inches of rain could fall across Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Some updates cite even higher totals, so local advisories matter more than any single number. For the latest numbers, see our corrected Isaias advisory and the surge forecast breakdown.
Here is the catch: the sources reviewed do not confirm that landfall yet. Intensity also varies by advisory time, from 105 mph in an early CNN update to 120 mph later. Forecasters expected some weakening before Isaias came ashore.
Travelers should also check Delta’s travel waiver for Gulf Coast airports. Nine airports are affected.
Even with Isaias grabbing headlines, the Hurricane Simon Mexico landfall forecast remains the larger long-range worry. Gulf Coast readers can keep tabs on that storm in our Saturday morning brief.
Here’s the thing: why Simon hitting Mexico matters
If you live on the Gulf Coast, in Southern California or in the Mexican resort belt, the advice is the same. Follow your local emergency officials, not a headline. Surge, flash floods and tornadoes cause the damage in these storms. They do not wait for the wind to peak.
The Hurricane Simon Mexico landfall is the storm to watch most closely, and the Pacific coast is the place with the least time to prepare. If you are traveling to Mexico’s Pacific coast, the U.S. Embassy has advised against entering the water or walking on beaches. And if your forecast says three storms, check it twice.
The next 48 hours will settle whether Simon really gets to Category 4. For now, the question everyone is asking is whether the Pacific can keep this up.
