A storm that was a tropical storm a day ago is now a hurricane, and it is still gaining strength. Hurricane Vance spun up off Mexico’s southwest coast early Friday, and forecasters say it is just getting started. It is a Category 1 hurricane, and the National Hurricane Center expects it to become a major hurricane very quickly.
Here is where things stand. At 0900 GMT, the Associated Press reports, Vance had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. It sat about 440 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, drifting north-northwest at roughly 6 mph.
How fast Hurricane Vance is strengthening
This storm did not take its time. Vance began as Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E on Wednesday, Oct. 21, and became a tropical storm within hours, according to AccuWeather. On Thursday afternoon it was still a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. By Friday morning it was a hurricane.
The Hurricane Center expects rapid strengthening to continue. The AP’s updated text says Vance could reach major Category 3 strength before Friday ends. Earlier versions of the story floated Category 4, but the updated reporting settles on Category 3.
The forecasts are moving fast, too. The center’s 5-day outlook issued Thursday topped out near 105 mph. That was before Vance started intensifying, so expect the numbers to change.
Will Hurricane Vance hit Mexico?
Not yet, and that is the honest answer. The storm is expected to keep moving north-northwest through the weekend. It should approach the Puerto Vallarta area by Monday, the AP reports. The official Vance storm track keeps the center offshore for now.
AccuWeather has described two paths: staying out at sea, or turning toward west-central Mexico, including Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect. Still, the Hurricane Center expects life-threatening surf and rip currents along parts of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend into next week.
Here’s the thing: if you live on this coast or plan to visit it, the water is the first risk. A hurricane does not need to make landfall to hurt people. Big swells can reach shore days before the storm does.
“Vance may spend most of or all of its life as a hurricane while over the open waters of the eastern Pacific.”
That is AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva, quoted by Newser.
A busy Pacific hurricane season
Vance is not an outlier. It is the 13th hurricane of the Pacific basin this season. If it reaches major status, it becomes the 10th Category 3 or stronger storm, FOX Weather reports. AccuWeather counts it as the 11th major hurricane of the season across the central and eastern Pacific.
The AP says storms have formed in assembly-line fashion near Hawaii and Mexico this year. It ties that to El Niño conditions made worse by global warming. This Vance hurricane is also tracking much like Hurricane Trudy did earlier this month.
A quick note on the name: Vance comes from the World Meteorological Organization’s rotating lists. It has nothing to do with Vice President JD Vance, as Newser points out. It is also the first V-named eastern Pacific storm since 2018.
What to watch next
Keep an eye on the Hurricane Center’s advisories. The big questions are how strong Hurricane Vance gets, and whether that northward track bends toward land. Any coastal watch or warning for Mexico’s Pacific coast would be the signal that things have changed.
The U.S. angle is unconfirmed. Some forecasters have raised the possibility that leftover tropical moisture could eventually reach Texas. However, the details are thin, and nobody should plan around it yet.
Weather is not the only thing worth tracking this week. If you need a break from the forecast maps, our college football playoff semifinals preview covers the odds, and our look at whether wealthy shoppers are still spending digs into the latest Amex numbers. We also broke down why Meta may not pay its $25 billion New Mexico penalty soon.
Monday is the date to circle. Until then, the question is whether that track stays out at sea or bends toward land, and the next advisory may start to answer it.
