Six games, zero losses, and a very large target on San Francisco’s back. The 49ers are 6-0 after beating Washington on Monday night, which makes them the team to catch in the NFL No. 1 seed odds.
Kansas City is the only other unbeaten team with a real claim to the AFC’s top spot.
The latest FOX Sports No. 1 seed odds were posted Oct. 14, and they still carry plenty of drama. Odds move daily, so treat every number below as a snapshot, not a prediction.
NFL No. 1 seed odds: what the market said
Here is how the AFC looked in FOX’s Oct. 14 update, using DraftKings numbers. The Chiefs and Bills were tied at +340. The Ravens sat at +360, and the Jaguars were right behind at +370. After that came a big drop to the Patriots and Broncos at +1100, then the Bengals at +1200.
That is a four-team scrum at the top. A week earlier, the picture was tidier. The Chiefs were the clear favorite at +235, with Buffalo at +300 and Baltimore at +380.
So what changed? Mostly, the market got less sure about Kansas City.
Four weeks of football made the Chiefs a favorite, and two more weeks made them one of four.
Why the 49ers lead the NFC No. 1 seed race
The NFC looks far simpler. FOX said the 49ers “stand alone” at the top of the conference. Their Week 6 win over the Commanders, 23-17, improved them to 6-0. That record already includes a road win over the defending Super Bowl champions.
San Francisco was already the NFC favorite at +190 on Oct. 7. Since then, some rivals have stumbled. The Rams and Seahawks both lost in Week 6, according to Sports Illustrated’s Super Bowl odds rankings. Sports Illustrated put the 49ers first at +580 to win it all and the Chiefs second at +850. Speaking of Seattle, the franchise is also in the middle of a record $9.6 billion ownership sale.
The Vikings are the other unbeaten team, per a Week 6 review. That makes them the most serious threat to San Francisco’s grip on the NFC.
Here’s the thing: first-round bye odds are worth real money
This is more than a bragging-rights award. The top seed gets a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Six of the last 13 Super Bowl winners were their conference’s No. 1 seed, FOX notes.
That matters even more for the Chiefs. Kansas City missed the playoffs last year, so a No. 1 seed would cap one of the league’s sharpest turnarounds. Patrick Mahomes has landed the AFC’s top seed four times as a starter, in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024. Nobody else in the conference has that résumé.
It is also a warning label. Denver held last season’s AFC No. 1 seed and still lost to New England in the conference title game.
A bye gets you a week of rest, not a ticket to the Super Bowl.
What to watch in the top seed odds next
Week 7 is next, and FOX typically refreshes these NFL No. 1 seed odds weekly. Expect the AFC numbers to keep shifting, because four teams within a few points of each other rarely stay that way for long. If you are tracking the market, check DraftKings directly before you rely on any figure here. Bettors can also follow the money in other arenas, like the new $25M fraud tip program, though the payout rules there are murkier.
The question for the 49ers is simple: can they stay perfect long enough to turn a hot start into a first-round bye? As for the AFC, ask the oddsmakers who gets there, and the honest answer is a shrug.
