Forecasters give Democrats an 84% chance of winning the House on Tuesday, according to Decision Desk HQ’s model. That is the picture on midterm election eve, and the president is already planning for it. Trump says he may have to become “Mr. Veto” if Democrats win, according to Bloomberg.
So what does that mean for your wallet, your health coverage and your grocery bill? Our look at what a Congress flip means for your budget goes deeper. For now, let’s take it in order.
On midterm election eve, the polls are low but not falling off a cliff
Some headlines say Trump’s approval is diving. The numbers don’t show a fresh plunge. They show a president parked near the bottom of his second term.
A CNN poll from Oct. 21 put his approval at 32%, a record low for that poll. The final NPR/PBS/Marist poll found 40% of likely voters approve and 59% disapprove. Among independents, it was 34% approve and 64% disapprove.
Reuters/Ipsos actually showed a small bump. Its latest survey had approval up one point to 32% after a record low the week before, that poll reported. Polls also differ on whether they ask adults, registered voters or likely voters.
One more caution. A Brookings-based figure putting approval near 46% has been making the rounds. We could not find the analysis itself, and it sits far above every poll above, so we are leaving it out.
Cost of living is voters’ top issue in the CNN poll, and Trump’s approval on the economy sits at just 27% there. If that holds at the ballot box, those two numbers may be the whole story by midnight.
What the forecasters say the night before the midterms
The House looks like the safer bet for Democrats. Decision Desk HQ projects about 241 seats for them. The Silver Bulletin model is even higher, at roughly 95%, and projects an average gain of 25 seats. For more on that split, see why the Senate is a toss-up and the House is not.
The Senate is the real fight. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority and need to keep 50 seats, because Vice President JD Vance breaks ties. Fox News rates Senate control a toss-up, with Alaska, Texas and Iowa among the races to watch. Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 64% chance there.
Still, a model is not a result. A 16% chance still happens about one time in six. And no race counts until AP or a major network calls it.
Here’s the thing: a Democratic House does not mean new laws
Here is the part the campaign ads skip. Even if Democrats take the House, Trump holds the veto pen. Congress needs a two-thirds vote in both chambers to override a veto, and nobody is projecting that.
Trump has said as much. “They’ll be sending stuff up, you veto it,” he said in a clip from a New York Post podcast interview aired Sunday on Fox News, per Bloomberg. He predicts that eventually Democrats will “make a deal.” That is his prediction, not a forecast.
CNBC reports that Wall Street is already preparing. In a Piper Sandler survey of 138 investors, 96% expect Democrats to win the House. The same analysis says Democratic proposals could add $5 trillion to deficits over a decade. It also notes that a veto would likely block the biggest changes.
Expect fights, not finished laws. Tariffs, Medicaid and nutrition programs, and ACA subsidies would all be on the table. A Democratic House would likely launch investigations of the administration too, though that is a general expectation, not an announced plan.
What to watch after the midterm election eve ends
Polls close Tuesday across the country. Keep an eye on the House toss-ups, including FL-22, TX-15, TX-35, IA-2, ME-2 and PA-1. In the Senate, watch whether Republicans can hold the 50 seats they need. Early voting is a story, too: many people have already voted early.
So the question is no longer whether Washington gets divided. It is whether Trump’s veto pen and the Senate’s 50-seat line leave Democrats with anything to pass.
