Election Day hasn’t even arrived, and the scoreboard is already lit up: early voting turnout is already a midterm record. More than 50 million Americans had cast ballots as of Sunday, according to a University of Florida analysis reported by Al Jazeera. Early voting is wrapping up across the country, and if you haven’t voted yet, your window is Tuesday, with rules that depend on your state.
The early voting turnout record, in numbers
On Oct. 30, the University of Florida Election Lab counted more than 46 million early votes. That was already more than the 45.9 million early votes cast in all of 2022. Bloomberg reported that more than one in five registered voters had already voted four days before Election Day. Our earlier report on how early voting topped all of 2022’s total shows how fast the count has climbed.
Those figures look different because they are the same running count taken on different days. Think of it as a scoreboard that never stops climbing.
Democrats hold the early edge. Bloomberg puts their lead in early turnout at 12 points. The UF analysis counts more than 11 million registered Democrats who have voted, versus about 8 million registered Republicans.
Why the early ballots cast are not a forecast
Here’s the thing: party registration is not the same as vote choice, and an early lead is not a result. Plenty of voters cross party lines. Republicans also tend to vote in person on Election Day, and WRAL notes that Election Day turnout is expected to partly offset the early numbers. We laid out the Senate picture when we looked at the Senate races three days out.
Comparing this to 2020 is also shaky, since that year’s mail-voting surge was driven by the pandemic. UF political scientist Michael McDonald says overall midterm turnout could top 2022 and may even rival 2018.
Early voting turnout in Texas, North Carolina and Maine
Texas may be the loudest example. More than 7.7 million Texans voted early, over 40% of voters, passing the 2018 record, the Texas Tribune reports. For comparison, 5.5 million voted early in the 2022 midterm. Harris County closed early voting with 1,081,010 votes and its biggest single day, per ABC13. The Senate race between Ken Paxton, James Talarico and Libertarian Ted Brown is on the ballot, along with the governor’s race.
In North Carolina, about 33% of eligible voters, roughly 2.6 million people, had voted through Friday, a state midterm record. Democrats and unaffiliated voters cast about three-quarters of those ballots. Maine’s early voting numbers are up 44%, with Republican Sen. Susan Collins facing Democrat Troy Jackson.
No single final day for early voting
The lead calls it the final day of early voting, but that depends on where you live. Texas ended Oct. 30. North Carolina and New Mexico finished Saturday. In Ohio’s Mahoning Valley, county boards of elections are open 1 to 5 p.m. Sunday for the last early voting.
If you haven’t voted yet, you are an Election Day voter. Check your state’s hours before you leave the house.
- Texas: polls close at 7 p.m. Mail ballots postmarked by 7 p.m. Tuesday can arrive by 5 p.m. Wednesday, with exceptions for military and overseas voters.
- Pennsylvania: polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m.
- New Mexico (Bernalillo County): polls run 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Expect a long, two-sided ballot.
- Ohio: absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. Tuesday.
What the early vote record means for Tuesday
Polls start closing nationally at 6 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday. The last ones, in Alaska’s western Aleutians, close at 1 a.m. Eastern Wednesday. Some states accept overseas ballots until later in the week, so check your own state’s rules.
So who shows up Tuesday? That is the question that decides whether the early Democratic lead holds or shrinks. We also covered the Vance Texas rally and the Paxton early vote.
Fifty million votes are already in the bank. Now the rest of the country gets its turn at the counter.
