Democrats have an 83% chance of winning the House, according to Decision Desk HQ, and the Senate is still a coin flip. The 2026 midterm election is Tuesday, and every forecaster agrees on at least one thing: the House is leaning blue.
All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot, along with a long list of governorships and ballot measures. So let’s start with what this midterm election forecast actually says.
Midterm election forecast: House likely, Senate wide open
Right now, the House is Republican-held, 218-214. NPR reports that edge “appears all but certain to give way to Democratic control,” and the Cook Political Report has Democrats favored in 220 seats, with 17 toss-ups.
The models are even more confident. Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats that 83% chance, while Silver Bulletin puts it near 95%, with an average gain of 25 seats. So the House is less a question of who and more a question of by how much.
The Senate is where the drama lives. Republicans hold it 53-47, and Fox News rates control a toss-up. Republicans need 50 seats because Vice President JD Vance breaks ties. Democrats need 51 for an outright majority.
The forecasters split here. Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 63% shot, and Poliwave says 76%. Others see a narrow Republican hold. For more on that split, see our look at why the Senate is still a toss-up.
2026 midterms outlook: the Senate races that decide control
Decision Desk HQ rates Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaska as toss-ups. Fox also moved Kansas to toss-up and Nebraska to Lean R in its latest rankings.
Texas pits Democrat James Talarico against Republican Ken Paxton. Ohio has a special election with Democrat Sherrod Brown. In Georgia, Jon Ossoff faces Rep. Mike Collins.
Two more races show how thin the margins run. In Maine, a Yahoo News roundup has the Democratic nominee leading Sen. Susan Collins by 2 to 7 points. In Michigan, 11 of 12 October polls showed Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead, by 1 to 7 points.
Still, polls miss, and any midterm forecast carries that risk. A lead of 2 points is not a lead you can bank.
Texas turnout shakes up the election forecast
If you are in Texas, you have probably noticed the turnout. More than 7.7 million Texans had voted early as of Sunday morning, about 40.5% turnout, which beats the 2018 midterm record, according to the Texas Tribune.
That’s a midterm acting like a presidential race, and it complicates any election forecast built on past turnout. Latino voters could be a big piece of it, as our report on the Texas Senate race explains.
Early turnout does not tell you who is winning, though. Democrats are leaning on early voting, but NBC News also reports surging Hispanic turnout, and nobody knows yet how that splits.
What to watch on election night: midterm predictions meet real results
Per NPR’s election-night guide, polls start closing at 7 p.m. Eastern in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont. Pennsylvania has the most competitive House races, with four, including three toss-ups.
Florida, meanwhile, is the first test of its redrawn congressional map. That is part of a wave of mid-decade redistricting, which is why the House math is not as simple as it looks, and why midterm predictions can wobble.
If the Senate is razor-thin, do not expect a call early Tuesday night.
Why the midterm forecast matters to you
Here’s the thing: control of Congress shapes the final two years of this presidency, from spending fights and oversight hearings to who gets confirmed to what. A split government means gridlock, and the markets and your 401(k) tend to notice gridlock.
Prediction markets, for their part, agree with the models, though they are speculators, not pollsters. As of Oct. 27, CNBC reported Kalshi traders put a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 63%.
The national parties are spending like it, with more than $10 million apiece in toss-up districts in Michigan, North Carolina, New York and Florida. Even deep-red Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arkansas are seeing seven-figure buys.
The simplest plan is to vote, then give the count a few days before declaring anything final. If you want a sense of the scale, see our look at record early voting turnout.
The models have had their say. Now the people with the actual ballots get theirs.
