More than 7.7 million Texans already voted, and the Senate race they’re deciding is still a toss-up. Texas election predictions are everywhere on the eve of Election Day, including a set from the Houston Chronicle’s opinion editor. But no hot take outweighs that turnout number.
That’s a lot of people to leave a pundit with nothing to do.
Texas Senate race picks, and their fine print
Houston Chronicle Opinion Editor Evan Mintz published his picks for the Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, plus other contests on the Texas ballot. He also invites readers to send letters pushing back on his “faulty predictions” on Wednesday morning.
Early voting just set a midterm record
The Texas Tribune reports that more than 7.7 million Texans voted early, about 40.5% of roughly 19 million registered voters. That tops the 2018 record. In 2022, about 5.5 million people voted early. Registered voters are up about 7.7% since then, so growth alone doesn’t explain the jump. For the national picture, see our look at how early voting topped all of 2022’s total.
Harris County had about 1.1 million early votes and Dallas County about 625,000. Meanwhile, Tarrant, Bexar and Travis counties each passed 400,000, according to KXAN’s tracker. Early totals vary slightly by source and date, so expect small differences in the numbers you see.
Texas election forecast: what the polls say about the Senate
The RealClearPolling average has Talarico at 49.0 and Paxton at 46.5, a 2.5-point lead. However, the individual polls don’t agree. YouGov has Talarico up 51-47, CNN has him up 49-43, and Emerson has it 49-48. Quantus has Paxton ahead 49-48. A Texas Southern University poll has Talarico up 49-47, with a margin of error of 2.2 points.
That is a lean, not a lock. Several of those margins sit inside the error range.
Prediction markets are not results, either. Polymarket listed Talarico at 72%, but odds are not votes, and no race is called until AP or the major networks call it. The wider chamber fight looks different, as we explain in why the Senate is a toss-up while the House is not.
What this means for you
A toss-up Senate seat in a state this big affects more than bragging rights. Control of the chamber shapes what gets confirmed, funded and blocked, from federal spending to the prices you see at the pump. Record turnout also means long lines are possible on Tuesday, so plan your time. And a close race means every ballot has real weight, including yours.
Texas midterm predictions get complicated in the governor’s race
The same TSU poll has Gov. Greg Abbott at 50 and Democrat Gina Hinojosa at 47, with Libertarian Pat Dixon at 2. A YouGov survey put Abbott’s lead at just 1 point, inside its margin of error. Ticket-splitting is the wrinkle: a sliver of voters crossing over could send the Senate and governor results in different directions.
Don’t read the turnout as a winner
Hispanic voters made up 18% of first-week early ballots, versus 17% in 2024 and 16% in 2022. VoteHub also said the early electorate on day one was about 10 points more Democratic than the first day of early voting in 2024. But Texas does not report votes by party. Those splits come from VoteHub’s modeling and poll respondents, not official counts.
High turnout tells you people showed up. It doesn’t tell you who they voted for. Any Texas voting outlook built on turnout alone is a guess dressed up as analysis.
What happens next
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Check your county’s site for poll hours and your polling place before you go. Texas is mostly on Central time, with a small Mountain-time area, so results timing varies. The Texas Secretary of State’s office publishes the official early-voting and results reports. We’ll call nothing until AP or a major network does.
Here’s the thing: if you haven’t voted yet, your ballot is the one forecast on the table that actually counts. The next time anyone hands you one of those Texas election predictions, remember that 7.7 million Texans already made theirs.
