Millions of Texans voted early, and the latest polling average still has Talarico ahead just 49.0% to 46.5%. That gap sits inside the margin of error. Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are effectively a coin flip on the eve of Election Day, and the winner could help decide who controls the U.S. Senate. Polls close Tuesday, Nov. 3, and the Texas Tribune’s final preview says polling sits within the margin of error.
For the bigger picture on early turnout, see our look at how millions of Texans voted early.
The Texas Senate race by the numbers
Start with the polls, because they disagree. The RealClearPolling average has Talarico at 49.0% and Paxton at 46.5%. Meanwhile, a CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters, taken Oct. 20-27, had Talarico up 49% to 43%, with a margin of error of 4.2 points.
Then there is Quantus, which had Paxton ahead 49% to 48% in its Oct. 26-28 survey, according to RCP. Most of these margins fall inside the margin of error.
Forecasters do agree on one thing. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate the contest a toss-up. Paxton has even called it tied himself in a post on X.
1. Do Latino voters swing back in the Texas Senate election?
Hidalgo, Starr and Webb counties in South Texas each had more early voters than in 2024, according to the Tribune’s reporting. Hispanic voters made up 19% of the statewide early electorate, per GOP data analyst Derek Ryan. That is up from 17% in 2024.
The bigger question is not just how many showed up, but which way they lean. Nobody has that answer yet.
2. Can Talarico hit 60% in Harris County?
Harris County supplied 14% of early voters, and its early turnout rate was 39%, compared with 29% in 2022. In all, Houston-area counties cast nearly a quarter of the early vote statewide, Houston Public Media reported.
The Tribune frames 60% in Harris as a benchmark for Talarico. If he falls short of it, his path gets harder.
3. How do the suburbs vote in the Senate battle in Texas?
Tarrant, Collin and Denton counties are where Texas elections are often won or lost, and this Senate battle in Texas is no exception. Look at the margins there, not just who wins. A Republican who carries them by thin numbers has a problem.
4. Could a Libertarian decide the Texas Senate race?
Libertarian Ted Brown polls between 1% and 3%. He drew 2.4% in the 2024 Senate race. Because neither major candidate averages 50%, either could win without a majority. In a contest this tight, a couple of points for a third candidate is not a rounding error.
Watch the undervote too. Some conservative-leaning voters are reportedly skipping the Senate race in protest of Paxton while still backing Gov. Greg Abbott.
5. How much of the Republican base is sitting this one out?
The University of Houston Hobby School poll found only 88% of likely Republicans backing Paxton, with 6% of Republicans choosing Talarico. Independents favored Talarico 60% to 32%, a gap that could matter a great deal.
State Sen. Paul Bettencourt, a Houston Republican, said GOP voters are lagging in early voting. By his math, Republicans need 54% of independents statewide to win.
Why the Texas Senate race matters for you
Here’s the thing: Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, so this seat could help decide control of Washington. That affects federal policy on prices, immigration and spending that lands in every Texas household. Our guide to what a Congress flip means for your budget breaks down the stakes.
Voters say cost of living is their top concern. Cook Political Report editor-in-chief Amy Walter wrote that Paxton is “almost twice as unpopular” as Trump among Texans. That matters because a candidate who repels his own side’s lukewarm voters can lose a state that leans his way. Voters trust Talarico more on prices and corruption, while Paxton keeps an edge on immigration.
If Talarico wins, it would be the first Democratic statewide win in Texas since 1994, and the first Democratic Senate win since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, Newsweek noted.
A word of caution on early votes
Early-vote totals vary by outlet and date, from about 6.8 million to 7.6 million. Treat any single number carefully. Texas has no party registration, so early voting does not reveal which party is ahead. Anyone who tells you otherwise is guessing.
What happens next on election night
Polls close Tuesday night. Watch Harris County and the Rio Grande Valley first, then the suburbs. A razor-thin margin could delay a call, so don’t be surprised if Wednesday morning arrives without a winner. For the national angle, see why the Senate is a toss-up while the House is not.
We will only report a race as called when the AP or a major network calls it, and we will say who made the call.
