Rub your eyes if you must: Texas goes blue for the first time in decades. Democrat James Talarico beat Ken Paxton for the U.S. Senate, and Gina Hinojosa won the governor’s race, according to the outlets calling them.
The Texas flag still flies. The statewide scoreboard just looks very different today.
Texas goes blue: how long has it been?
The honest answer is that it depends on which office you mean. The Associated Press says Talarico’s win is the first time a Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994. NBC News says it is the first Democratic Senate victory in Texas since 1988.
The governor’s office keeps its own clock. The National reports that Hinojosa is the first Democrat to hold it since 1995, and the first Latina governor in state history. That is more than three decades of Republican control, and Gov. Greg Abbott has conceded, KUT reports. For the full story of how that race played out, see our look at how Abbott outspent Hinojosa 6 to 1 and still lost.
So the headline number is 32 years since any Democrat won statewide. Pick your office and you get 1988, 1994 or 1995. Every one of them is a long time.
What the numbers say so far
These are unofficial counts, and they will move. As of 10:42 p.m. Tuesday, with 34% of polling locations reporting, the Texas Secretary of State showed Talarico with 3,953,175 votes to Paxton’s 3,212,000. In the governor’s race, Hinojosa had 3,813,252 to Abbott’s 3,393,550.
Later in the night, The New Republic, citing Decision Desk HQ, had Talarico ahead 58% to 40% with 68% of the vote counted. That is a long way from the October UMass Lowell/YouGov poll, which had the two tied at 45% each.
The final margin will shift as the rest of the ballots come in, so treat any single percentage as a snapshot.
Here’s the thing: when Texas goes blue, it is not a Trump-state flip
Before anyone starts printing new maps, a reality check. Texas has not voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since Jimmy Carter in 1976, and nothing on Tuesday changes that. “Texas goes blue” describes statewide offices, not the Electoral College.
It still stings for Republicans. Paxton had Donald Trump’s endorsement, and NBC calls Texas perhaps the biggest personal blow to Trump among the states on the ballot. The New Republic notes Trump carried Texas with 56% just two years ago. That is quite a swing for one cycle.
How Talarico got here: Democrats win Texas
Talarico is a state representative and a seminary student, and he ran on lowering everyday costs and on corruption allegations against Paxton. Paxton, the sitting attorney general, was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and later acquitted by the state Senate. He also fought a hard primary against Sen. John Cornyn before landing in this race.
Talarico even picked up some unexpected family-name support. NBC reports that Barbara Bush, George W. Bush’s daughter, and Neil Bush, his brother, backed him.
Beto O’Rourke came closest for Democrats in 2018 against Ted Cruz, and he fell short. When Democrats win Texas this time, it is Talarico who finally got there.
The wave goes past the top of the ticket
Texas Democratic wins were not limited to the top of the ticket. Democrats were also leading or winning several Texas U.S. House races as of this writing, according to Decision Desk HQ, including Christian Menefee in TX-18, Colin Allred in TX-33 and Greg Casar in TX-37. The page was still updating.
CNN’s Jake Tapper used the word “bluenami” for the night, and the Dallas Observer ran with it.
Talarico’s win also boosts Democrats’ push to retake control of the U.S. Senate. Whether they get there depends on races outside Texas, so that story is still being written elsewhere. Our report on the Democrats’ Senate push in the midterms covers that part of the night.
What happens next now that Texas has turned blue
Counting and certification continue. The down-ballot statewide races, including lieutenant governor and attorney general, are still being tallied, and the margins will keep moving. We also do not have a concession from Paxton yet.
Markets are watching too, and our piece on Nasdaq futures falling 2% on blue wave fears shows how fast the reaction has spread.
The question every Texan will be asking tomorrow is simple. Was this a one-night wave, or is the longest losing streak in American politics finally over?
