Grab a snack and keep your phone charged: Texas election results will start rolling in after polls close at 7 p.m. Central tonight. Two of the biggest races in the country, a U.S. Senate seat and the governor’s mansion, look closer than Texas has seen in a generation.
No votes have been counted, and no race has been called as of this writing. So anyone telling you who won before the polls close is guessing.
Texas election results: what’s on the ballot
The headliner is the Senate race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. According to NBC News, Paxton has Trump’s backing, and Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. Paxton beat four-term Sen. John Cornyn for the GOP nomination. Meanwhile, Talarico beat Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary. For more on why this contest is so tight, see our look at why the Senate race is a toss-up.
Right behind it is the governor’s race. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa and Libertarian Pat Dixon. Abbott would be the first Texas governor elected to a fourth term. Hinojosa would be the first Democratic governor since Ann Richards left office in 1995, The Texan reports.
Also on the ballot: 38 U.S. House seats, lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, land commissioner, agriculture commissioner, a Railroad Commission seat, 16 state senators and all 150 Texas House seats, per Texas 2036. (It’s a long ballot. Bring snacks there too.)
Texas race results: the polls say close. Very close.
Here’s the thing: the forecasts don’t agree, and that’s the story. Decision Desk HQ’s polling average has Talarico at 49.4% to Paxton’s 46.0%, and its model gives Talarico a 62% chance. The governor’s race, however, flips the script. The same outlet’s average has Abbott at 49.1% to Hinojosa’s 47.5%, with a 68% chance for Abbott.
The final New York Times/Siena poll of 1,215 likely voters had Hinojosa at 48% and Abbott at 47%. That gap sits well inside its 3.4-point margin of error, according to Fox 7 Austin. More than 60% of those respondents had already voted.
Prediction markets lean Abbott, but odds are not results. Instead, treat all of this as a weather forecast, not a scoreboard.
Record early vote changes the math on Texas Election Day
More than 7.6 million Texans voted before today, according to Newsweek. The Texas Tribune puts the number above 7.7 million. NBC News expects roughly 10.7 million votes in total, which means a big share of the electorate is already in the bank. Our earlier piece on the record early vote breaks down the numbers.
That matters for tonight’s Texas election results. Republicans are banking on Election Day turnout, Newsweek reports, and early and Election Day votes may be reported in separate waves. As a result, a lead at 8 p.m. can look very different at 11.
Patience is the smart play.
What you need to know before you vote
Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. statewide, and early voting ended Friday. If you’re in line when the clock hits 7 p.m., stay in line. Texas Secretary of State Robert Howden has urged voters to vote with confidence. Check your polling place before you head out, because Election Day locations can differ from early-vote sites.
If you’re watching from home, polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. West Texas areas on Mountain Time close an hour later. Some mail ballots can still arrive after Election Day, so counts may keep moving.
The money behind this race is staggering. The Tribune reports Republican ad spending of more than $280 million in the general election, financed primarily by Elon Musk. Whatever happens tonight, it won’t be for lack of advertising.
What happens next with the Texas midterm results
Don’t expect every question answered by bedtime. A close Senate race could hang on late-counted ballots, and control of the Senate may ride on the result, per Newsweek. Our guide to what a Congress flip means for your budget explains the stakes. The House picture is murky too: 270toWin lists Districts 15 and 35 as toss-ups. We’ll update as official counts and race calls come in from AP and the Texas Secretary of State.
One thing is already certain: millions of Texans have already voted, and the people who showed up are about to tell us whether this state is still as red as everyone assumed.
