The Hurricane Isaias update as of Thursday night is simple: the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 is a Category 2 with 100 mph winds, and it is heading for the northern Gulf Coast. According to CBS News, forecasters expect landfall late Friday or early Saturday. For the full backstory, see our earlier report on the season’s first hurricane taking aim at the Gulf Coast.
Hurricane Isaias Update: Where the Storm Stands Right Now
Isaias became a hurricane late Wednesday night and reached Category 2 on Thursday. At the 7 p.m. Central advisory, it was still a Category 2 at 100 mph, per CNN. Strength had leveled off after the earlier burst.
The core sat roughly 290 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Meanwhile, it was moving northeast at about 13 mph. That is faster than the 9 mph it managed about 12 hours earlier, so the clock is ticking.
Central pressure was 974 millibars, according to WJHG in Panama City. Forecasters expect further strengthening through early Friday. After that, the storm should ease some before it reaches land. That is the headline of this Hurricane Isaias update: strong now, but possibly softer at the coast.
Isaias Hurricane Forecast: Where It Hits, and How Hard
Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle are in the bullseye. Fox Weather puts landfall between Gulf Shores and Pensacola. ABC, however, says the latest forecast nudged east, closer to Pensacola late Friday night. Our earlier look at how Invest 92L raised Gulf track uncertainty shows how much this forecast has shifted.
The outlets do not agree on strength at landfall. CNN says a run near Category 3 is possible before some weakening. ABC expects a Category 1 at landfall, while Fox calls it a dangerous Category 2. The honest answer is that nobody knows yet, so watch the National Hurricane Center instead of the headline.
The warnings are already up, per the 7 p.m. advisory relayed by WJHG:
- Storm surge warning: the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River.
- Hurricane warning: Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida.
- Tropical storm warning: parts of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, plus the Florida coast east of the Bay/Gulf County line to the Aucilla River.
- Storm surge watch: the Suwannee River to Yankeetown.
Isaias Storm Update: Surge, Rain and Tornadoes
Water is the real danger here. Storm surge of 4 to 7 feet above ground is possible in surge-prone areas, and that number held nearly steady from the previous assessment.
Rain is the second punch. ABC reports 4 to 8 inches across the central Gulf Coast from Friday through the weekend, and some spots could see up to 15 inches. Outlets vary on these totals, so treat them as a range, not a promise.
Short-lived tornadoes are also possible, and CNN notes they can spin up with little warning. In other words, the storm does not need to be at the coast to cause trouble. Any Isaias storm update from here on should be read with that in mind.
Here’s the Thing: Evacuations and Closures
States of emergency are in effect in parts of Alabama, Florida and Georgia, with mandatory evacuations in some areas. Georgia’s governor declared a statewide emergency, according to The Weather Channel.
The disruptions are piling up fast:
- Pensacola’s airport is closing, and other Florida airports plan to follow.
- Parts of Louisiana and Alabama have lost Amtrak service.
- Montgomery, Alabama, schools are shut.
- Alabama State delayed its homecoming.
- Walton County, Florida, plans to close the 30A bridge.
If you live in a warned area and an evacuation order covers you, that is not a suggestion. Surge kills far more people than wind does. Every Gulf Coast hurricane update stresses the same point: leave when told.
A Late Start, a Fast Finish
This season spent months asleep. Fox reports that El Niño wind shear caused a record-slow start, and Isaias is the latest first hurricane since satellite-era records began in 1966. It is also the first Category 2 of the season, per The Weather Channel. Earlier, Tropical Storm Dolly fell apart in the Atlantic, which only adds to the sense of a season that started slowly.
Even so, the impacts will not stop at the beach. Remnants could push rain well inland through the weekend, even as far as Connecticut by Sunday night, according to a regional report.
Isaias Latest: What to Watch Next
Rain and tropical-storm-force winds could reach the New Orleans-to-Pensacola stretch as early as Friday morning. Landfall follows late Friday or early Saturday. The next National Hurricane Center advisories at nhc.noaa.gov will tell us whether the storm weakens as forecast. We will publish a fresh Hurricane Isaias update as soon as those advisories land.
The question for Friday is the one everyone on the coast is asking: does Isaias shrink before it arrives, or does it save its best punch for the shoreline?
