Same last name, different Bolsonaro. The Brazil runoff is happening today, and voters are choosing between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, according to Reuters reporting carried by NBC News.
Some headlines make it sound like a rematch of 2022, when Lula edged out Jair Bolsonaro. It isn’t. Jair cannot even vote this time. And as of this writing, officials have not announced a result.
Why the Bolsonaro name is still on the Brazil election ballot
Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court sentenced Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years and 3 months over a coup plot. The sentence became final in November 2025, and the court bars him from voting and from holding office until 2030. So his son Flávio, 45, carries the family banner in this Brazil election.
Flávio voted just after 8 a.m. local time at a school in Rio de Janeiro with his wife, Fernanda, according to the AP. Supporters of both camps chanted outside. Reuters said Lula was due to vote in São Bernardo do Campo, near São Paulo, but we have not confirmed that he has.
How tight is this Brazil presidential runoff?
Very.
In the first round on Oct. 4, Flávio won 47.03% of the vote, or about 56.1 million ballots. Lula took 45.16%, about 53.9 million. Neither cleared the 50% needed to win outright, per the first-round tally.
Flávio beat the polls that night. However, Al Jazeera’s preview says surveys since then show Lula closing the gap. Lula is 80 and seeking a fourth term, and CNN notes it would likely be his last.
The next piece of the math matters too. The three candidates who finished behind the top two in round one were all right-wing, which gives Flávio a possible pool of runoff voters, according to NPR.
Here’s the thing: why Americans should care about the Brazilian runoff vote
Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy, so the Brazil runoff is not a faraway story for American readers. It touches trade, tariffs and Washington’s standing in the region.
Reuters says a Flávio win would extend a run of right-wing victories in Trump-friendly governments in Latin America, including Chile, Peru and Colombia, and bring Brazil closer to the U.S. A Lula win would be a letdown in Washington, which has clashed with Brazil over trade and security.
The backdrop is not subtle. President Trump calls Jair Bolsonaro’s case a “witch hunt” and slapped a 50% tariff on Brazil in 2025, explicitly tied to the trial. Reuters says the administration later watered down many of those tariffs, but it added new levies this year. For more on how far these measures now reach, see our look at Trump’s forced-labor tariffs and the court fight over them. Lula argues the administration’s closeness to the Bolsonaros is an attempt to sway the vote.
Markets noticed too. Reuters reports Flávio’s first-round showing sent Brazil’s markets and currency soaring on hopes of pro-business reforms.
What the Lula Bolsonaro runoff campaign was really about
Cost of living, crime and gang violence, corruption, and the relationship with the U.S. dominated the race. Flávio promised maximum-security jails and a heavy-handed approach to crime. He also pledged to free his father if elected, per Reuters. Reuters says he urged supporters to vote “come rain or shine.”
What happens next after the Brazil runoff
Brazil’s electoral court, the TSE, counts the ballots and announces the result. We will update as soon as the court or major networks call a winner. We have not verified the exact poll-closing time or when results will arrive.
Watch three things once there is a winner. First, whether Flávio, if he wins, actually moves to free his father. Second, any new U.S.-Brazil tariff and trade moves. Third, the Congress the winner inherits: Flávio’s Liberal Party and other right-wing parties did well in round one, which would shape how much either man can get done. Global markets will also react, much as they do to other big shocks, such as the climate records scientists are now tracking.
One more thing to keep straight while the results roll in: this is Lula against a Bolsonaro, not against the Bolsonaro. The last name is doing a lot of work.
