Israelis turned out in record numbers on Tuesday, with 55.7% turnout at 4 p.m. local time, for a national election that works as a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It is the first vote since the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack. The Israel election results are still to come.
According to figures relayed by CNN from the Central Elections Committee, that compares with 47.5% at the same hour in 2022. In fact, it is the highest at that point of the day since hourly figures began in 1973.
Why the Netanyahu election matters beyond Israel
Netanyahu is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, with nearly 17 years of nearly uninterrupted rule, according to TNND. His main rival is former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the Yashar party. Meanwhile, voters are weighing security, the wars in Gaza and Iran, ultra-Orthodox military conscription, integrity and the economic cost of prolonged conflict, CNBC reports.
This is also the first national vote since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in February 2026. That is why American readers have a stake. Wall Street has already cheered a U.S.-Iran deal while Israel stays wary. On Sunday, President Trump endorsed Netanyahu, saying the two leaders had to “finish the job” against Iran. Asked Monday whether Netanyahu had requested a second endorsement, Trump said, “I never spoke to him about it.”
Here’s the thing: NBC News says a Netanyahu win could mean the Iran war “could intensify again.” It is the question U.S. readers should be asking, because American troops, oil prices and tax dollars all sit downwind of what Israel decides. Oil, for one, is already near a six-month high.
Israel vote count math: 61 seats and nobody close
The Knesset has 120 seats, and a bloc needs 61 to govern. No single party has ever won that many, AP reports. So the real contest is between blocs, and most polls suggest neither side gets there. Any Israel vote count will turn on that bloc math, not on a single party’s total.
A four-poll average from Channels 12, 13, 14 and Maariv, reported by the Jerusalem Post, had Eisenkot’s Yashar leading with about 22 seats. Likud sat near 19, and Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad sat near 14. The opposition averaged 54 seats against 49.5 for Netanyahu’s bloc. That is short of 61 either way.
However, polls also disagree. Channel 14, widely seen as pro-Netanyahu, put his bloc at 62 seats. Most others had it between 48 and 50.
The wild card in the Knesset election: Arab voters
Arab parties could end up pivotal in the Knesset election. According to CNN, pollsters projected Arab turnout as high as 70%, compared with just over 50% in 2022. Mansour Abbas, head of the Islamist Ra’am party, said while voting, “Our vote will change the government.”
Netanyahu, for his part, told reporters after voting, “This is a very moving and fateful moment,” then added, “Vote correctly,” saying he was not allowed to say things explicitly. His claim of “massive” Arab turnout is his own characterization, per AP.
What happens next in the Israeli election outcome
Voting ran from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. local time, or 4 p.m. Eastern. Exit polls come after the polls close, and official Israel election results follow over the coming days. Even then, a winner on paper is not a government. Expect weeks or even months of coalition talks among about a dozen parties.
Watch two things: which small parties clear the 3.25% threshold to enter the Knesset, and whether the Arab parties become kingmakers. A Maariv poll found 60% of Israelis favor a unity government, which raises the odds of a messy, unusual deal. The Israeli election outcome may also ripple into markets and trade, as energy profits already outpace tech.
The Central Elections Committee reported no signs of widespread irregularities during the day.
