Most campaigns whisper bad early-vote news. At Thursday’s Vance Texas rally, a closing case for Ken Paxton, Vice President JD Vance said it out loud: “the early vote is not going in our direction,” according to WFAA. With five days left, the Texas Senate race is suddenly a real fight.
Vance rallied for Paxton, the state’s attorney general and the Republican Senate nominee, at JRJ Construction in Weatherford in Parker County. He also taped a one-hour town hall with Fox News host Jesse Watters in Fort Worth, which airs tonight at 8 p.m. ET on “Jesse Watters Primetime,” per Fox’s announcement.
What Vance said at the Weatherford rally
The pitch was simple and loud. “Texas ain’t surrendering. Texas is not becoming California,” Vance said, Fox News reports. He also called the race “one of the most important Senate races in the United States of America.”
Then came the attacks on Democratic nominee James Talarico. Vance called him “an empty suit.” He also joked that he’d have to “talk to my priest” because he felt a little guilty going after him. Yahoo News reports that hundreds of supporters turned out and that Vance went after Talarico on transgender athletes and masculinity.
Paxton, for his part, asked the crowd whether they wanted “a U.S. senator who hates Christianity.” That’s his characterization of his opponent, not an established fact. He even skipped a planned Tyler stop on his 18-day bus tour to share the stage with Vance, CBS19 reports.
Why Vance keeps coming back to Texas
Here’s the thing: this was Vance’s third Texas stop in about a month, after Harlingen and Tyler. You can read more on his third return to Texas. Trump has made four Texas stops since Labor Day, including Corpus Christi and Lubbock on Tuesday. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso campaigned with Paxton in San Angelo and Abilene on Wednesday, according to Newsweek.
That is a lot of firepower for a state Republicans normally treat as a lock. Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. A Paxton loss would end that streak and could help Democrats take the Senate for the rest of Trump’s term.
The numbers explain the urgency. A CNN poll released Thursday shows Paxton trailing Talarico 49% to 43% among registered Texas voters. That is one poll, and it counts registered voters rather than likely ones. Newsweek and Yahoo describe Paxton as trailing in several recent surveys, though we haven’t checked each one. Talarico held his own rally in Dallas the same day.
The Weatherford stop also had a practical purpose. Parker County is heavily Republican, and Newsweek says the visit was meant to boost turnout there. When your side is behind in early voting, you go where your voters live and ask them to show up.
What to watch after the Vance Texas campaign stop
The Fox town hall tonight is the next test. It was pre-taped, and so far only the Alaska segment is public. Vance called for an investigation into an alleged Democratic plan to put a second “Dan Sullivan” on Alaska’s Senate ballot, per Fox’s live blog. That is Vance’s allegation, and we have not independently verified the underlying facts. Fox is both the host and the reporter here, so there is no independent account of the rest yet.
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Until then, expect more of the same: surrogates, bus tours and a lot of Texans being asked whether the state is about to change.
Vance said himself that the early vote isn’t going Paxton’s way. So the next five days are about whether Republicans can turn out enough voters on the day itself.
So the question Texas Republicans are asking tonight is simple: if the vice president had to fly in three times, how safe was this seat to begin with? Another Vance Texas rally before Tuesday would answer it.
