Texas Latino voters who swung to Donald Trump in 2024 now appear to be swinging back to Democrat James Talarico in his race against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, according to NewsNation and CBS News. That makes the Latino vote the story of the Senate race this weekend, with Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 3.
The overall race is a toss-up, as our three-days-out Senate breakdown shows. Texas also has about 6.3 million eligible Latino voters, roughly 31.7% of the electorate, per UCLA’s Latino Policy and Politics Institute (as reported by KSAT). In a race this tight, a few points in that bloc is the whole ballgame.
Nearly every recent poll has Talarico ahead among Latinos, though the margins vary a lot. Decision Desk HQ’s average has him at 54.8% to Paxton’s 32.1%. The University of Houston Hobby School, polling likely Latino voters, found 52% to 41%. A poll reported by KSAT showed 55% to 37%, and CBS News says nearly 60% of Hispanics in its latest poll back Talarico.
That spread runs from +11 to roughly +18 or more. Latino subsamples are small, so treat any single number with caution. The direction, though, is consistent. The CBS News/YouGov poll, which surveyed 1,492 registered Texans from Oct. 8 to 16, found most Latinos now back Talarico.
Emerson College Polling’s Spencer Kimball put it plainly: “Texas Hispanic voters who broke for Trump in 2024 now break for Talarico by 15 points.”
Why Texas Latino voters moved
Start with the grocery bill. According to the CBS poll, Latinos are more likely than voters overall to say higher prices have been a hardship. A separate survey cited by KSAT found 86% of Latino registered voters call the economy very important to their vote for Congress.
Then there is immigration. That same reporting found 56% of Texas Latino voters call immigration enforcement excessive. In South Texas, CBS found ICE operations dominate conversation in places like Mission. Not everyone agrees, though. McAllen resident Arturo Salas told CBS he backs mass deportations.
Character matters too. Most Latinos in the CBS poll don’t think Paxton has the right personal character, a theme that also runs through his final push in East Texas.
The 2024 hangover for the Latino electorate
Democrats still have a lot of ground to make up. Trump won 55% of Texas Latinos in 2024, a record for a Republican presidential candidate in the state, according to The Hill. That was up from 41% in 2020 and 34% in 2016. Heavily Latino Rio Grande counties went from Democratic strongholds to light red.
Republicans also have a real cushion in one place. The University of Houston poll shows Paxton leading rural Texans 65% to 27%. Among rural Latinos, NewsNation reports Paxton leads 56% to 24%. So the Latino shift is not uniform. It runs strongest in the cities and weaker in the countryside.
What early voting tells us about Hispanic voters in Texas
Early voting ran Oct. 19 to 30, and turnout was strong. Totals vary by outlet: NewsNation reported more than 6.7 million votes, while Newsweek put it above 7.6 million (a gap of about a million votes is a lot of rounding). For a final number, check Texas Secretary of State data, or see how early voting left the Senate race tied.
On the Latino share, estimates differ by method. Derek Ryan’s data, cited by the Texas Tribune, had Hispanics at 18% of early voters through the first week, a point above 2024. VoteHub, cited by TIME, had it at 24% as of Oct. 26. NewsNation says Hispanic early voters lean Democratic by roughly 2-to-1.
Here’s the catch: Texas doesn’t register voters by party or race, so those are modeled estimates, not results. Early voting shows who showed up, not who they voted for. Democratic consultant Chuck Rocha says Latinos in Texas are “voting at presidential levels.” That is a claim from a party operative, and the real numbers arrive Tuesday night.
The topline is still a coin flip
Strong Latino numbers for Talarico still don’t settle the overall race, because pollsters disagree on it. CBS News has Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 49%. Texas Southern University (Oct. 21-25, 2,000 likely voters, margin of error 2.19 points) has Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 47%. Quantus has Paxton ahead, 48.7% to 47.6%, with a 3.2-point margin of error, and its sample was 46.7% Republican and 39.4% Democratic.
Decision Desk HQ’s forecast gives Talarico a 59% chance of winning. Democratic strategist Matt Angle of the Lone Star Project cautioned: “We are not counting any chickens here.” And Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, per CBS, has warned, “We could lose Texas.”
Why the Latino vote in Texas matters beyond the state
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, so a Democratic win in Texas would complicate their math. A Democratic strategist told CBS that Texas Latino voters could be the difference between Republicans netting four Senate seats and Democrats breaking even or gaining one. The state is also on track for about $1 billion in midterm spending, with more than half of it in this Senate race, per CBS.
What to watch on Tuesday
Keep your eyes on three things: Latino turnout on Election Day, margins in the Rio Grande Valley, and how big the Democratic edge is in Dallas and Travis counties. Republicans are counting on Election Day voters to offset the heavy early turnout in Democratic-leaning counties. CBS Texas also noted the state has over 500 fewer Election Day polling locations than in 2018, which could mean longer lines.
The Abbott-Hinojosa governor’s race, which we profiled in our look at Gina Hinojosa, and South Texas House seats are also on the ballot. That includes Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar under a new map. If Tuesday is close, expect a long night. A call should come only when AP or a major network makes it, and not before.
Four years ago, nobody was asking whether Latino voters could flip Texas blue. This week, nobody can stop asking.
