Two Elon Musk companies report earnings on back-to-back nights, and the number that matters most isn’t profit. It’s whether SpaceX and Tesla are about to become one company, and whether Musk AI spending is the reason.
SpaceX reports third-quarter results after the market closes Tuesday, Oct. 20, with a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET streamed on X, according to Teslarati. Tesla follows Wednesday, Oct. 21, with its call scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET. Reuters has framed the pair as a test of Musk’s AI ambitions as merger talk grows.
Why Musk AI spending matters to your portfolio
Here’s the thing: both are huge U.S.-listed stocks, so plenty of retirement accounts hold them, directly or through index funds. If AI bills keep climbing faster than revenue, that shows up in share prices, and possibly in your statement.
SpaceX gave a preview in August. In its first report after going public, it posted second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% from a year earlier. It also lost $541 million, and the stock slid about 7% after hours, Payload reported.
The eye-opener was where the money went. AI capital spending hit $15.8 billion, or 86% of total spending, mostly data center hardware. That’s nearly all of the checkbook pointed at one thing.
AI segment revenue was $2.6 billion, up 247%. However, Payload says that growth came almost entirely from the merger and new cloud deals, not organic gains. For more on how the company is paying for that hardware, see our look at Musk’s $40 billion debt push for Nvidia chips.
What Wall Street expects from SpaceX and Tesla
For SpaceX, Bloomberg’s consensus, as cited by Teslarati, calls for revenue of $12.89 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $6.62 billion. Adjusted earnings per share are expected near $0.15. Analysts will also watch whether Musk AI capex keeps outrunning the revenue it produces.
Tesla’s bar is lower than you might think. MarketBeat shows analysts expecting about $0.45 per share on $27.92 billion in revenue. A year ago, by comparison, it earned $0.50 on $28.10 billion.
Last quarter it earned $0.33 against a $0.50 forecast, so Tesla has a miss to make up for.
Still, Tesla’s own delivery report gives some cushion. It delivered 486,532 vehicles and deployed 13.7 GWh of energy storage in the quarter.
The merger elephant in the room
Nothing has been announced. No board has approved a deal, and no terms exist. But the chatter is loud.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy says a deal could be announced before December. Barclays sees an all-stock structure with SpaceX as the likelier buyer. It figures Musk would own about 37% of the combined company and control 56% of the votes.
Barclays also says the timing matters: a deal would need to land by late October or early November to get a vote at Tesla’s annual meeting, expected by Dec. 6.
Musk has teased it, to put it kindly. On a podcast in September, he answered a merger question with, “Wow. Nobody’s ever asked that one.” In July, he told Tesla’s earnings call, “we can’t talk about combining companies, that kind of thing, on earnings calls,” as Gizmodo transcribed it.
In fact, the companies are already tangled up. Tesla holds a stake in SpaceX, backed a roughly $2 billion xAI investment, and is working with SpaceX on the Terafab chip factory in Texas and on Grok in its cars. That web of Musk AI bets is exactly what a merger would formalize.
Why a Musk AI investment merger would raise eyebrows
Musk controls both companies, so any deal invites conflict-of-interest questions. Commentators point to independent board committees and a separate vote by non-Musk shareholders as the fixes.
Barclays also flags government contracts and Tesla’s China operations as complications. Valuations vary widely by source, from about $1.2 trillion to $2.1 trillion for SpaceX, so treat any deal math as a guess.
Money is already flowing elsewhere in Musk’s orbit, too: his midterm spending has hit $276 million for Republicans, mostly out of sight.
What to watch Tuesday and Wednesday
Listen for three things: Musk AI spending and cash flow, any slip on the merger, and whether Musk repeats his July line about not discussing combinations on earnings calls. If he does, expect analysts to read it like tea leaves.
Two earnings calls, one billionaire, and a topic he says he can’t discuss. How long can he keep that up?
