Nearly 250 races are on the Nov. 3 ballot in Pennsylvania, but the Pennsylvania election day races to watch come down to four U.S. House districts, one state Senate flip and a governor who may be running for something bigger. That’s according to the Pennsylvania Capital-Star’s guide, and the results could shift power in Harrisburg and Washington.
Here’s the thing: Pennsylvania is one of the few states where a swing of a few thousand votes can change who controls Congress. It also decides who writes the rules on taxes, energy and schools back home.
Pennsylvania midterm races: Shapiro vs. Garrity for governor
This is the one that looks least like a nail-biter. Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is seeking a second term against Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, and President Trump has endorsed her. Libertarian Kenneth Krawchuk is also on the ballot, according to MultiState Elections.
The polling gap is wide. A Quinnipiac poll of likely voters, taken Oct. 1-5, had Shapiro ahead 59% to 34%. Meanwhile, the RealClearPolling average of four polls puts him at 56.8% to 32.8%, with individual polls ranging from a 20-point to a 30-point Shapiro lead. MultiState rates the race Solid Democratic.
Polls are snapshots, not results. Still, a gap this size means the real question is not who wins. It’s how big the margin gets.
That margin matters beyond Pennsylvania. Many see Shapiro as a possible 2028 presidential contender, and the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that a landslide with strong coattails would help his case. Shapiro pitches himself as a moderate who gets things done. Garrity’s campaign, however, says he is focused on a national run and too cozy with data center developers.
One concrete policy split: the two candidates disagree on skill games. Shapiro backs a 52% tax on the machines, while Garrity favors a $500 monthly fee per machine.
Pennsylvania races to watch in the U.S. House
Pennsylvania has 17 U.S. House districts, and Republicans hold a 10-7 edge after flipping the 7th and 8th in 2024, according to 270toWin. Analysts view four GOP-held seats (the 1st, 7th, 8th and 10th) as competitive. In 2024, the 7th, 8th and 10th were all decided by 2 points or less, so these Pennsylvania election day races carry real national weight.
Spotlight PA lists three of them as toss-ups, citing the Cook Political Report:
- PA-7 (Lehigh Valley): freshman Republican Ryan Mackenzie defends the seat against Democrat Bob Brooks.
- PA-8 (Scranton area): Republican Rob Bresnahan faces Democrat Paige Cognetti in a district that voted for Trump in 2020 and 2024. Ratings have varied by forecaster, so check the latest before you trust any single label.
- PA-10 (Harrisburg area): a 2024 rematch. Scott Perry beat Janelle Stelson by roughly 5,000 votes last time.
Cook rates the 1st District in Bucks County and part of Montgomery County Likely Republican, though it voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. Democrat Bob Harvie is the challenger.
Midterms traditionally favor the party out of power, the Capital-Star notes. As a result, flipping even a few seats in any chamber changes the balance.
The Pennsylvania Nov. 3 election in Harrisburg: can Democrats flip the state Senate?
Shapiro wants to expand the state’s Democratic congressional delegation and flip the state Senate, which Republicans have long held, according to the Capital-Star. The Inquirer says a sweep could give Democrats full control of the legislature for the first time in decades. That would hand the governor far more power to push his agenda.
We could not confirm the current chamber margins or which seats are most targeted, so we are not guessing at the math. Watch the results table, not the talking points.
Voting rules for the Pennsylvania election day races
County election boards must receive mail ballots by 8 p.m. on Nov. 3. Ballots that arrive later do not count, even if postmarked on time, according to the Pennsylvania Department of State. The application deadline has already passed, and more than 1.2 million Pennsylvanians had applied as of Oct. 20.
If you received a mail ballot but never sent it in, you can still vote in person. Bring your mail ballot materials so poll workers can void them.
What happens next in Pennsylvania’s election day races
Polls close Tuesday night, but counties keep counting mail ballots after that. Expect the close House races to take time. Do not trust a race call until the Associated Press or a major network makes one, and note who made it.
The three numbers to watch: how many House seats move, whether the state Senate flips, and how far Shapiro runs ahead.
Pennsylvania has a habit of making everyone wait. This year, the wait may decide who runs Congress.
