Amy Acton leads Vivek Ramaswamy 48% to 44%, a four-point edge, and the Ramaswamy Acton ad may be why. A new Suffolk University–USA TODAY poll suggests the spot, which features Acton’s estranged mother, cost Ramaswamy at least a few voters in Ohio’s governor race. That is a notable twist in a race for an open seat, with Election Day Nov. 3.
Here is what we can actually say.
What the Suffolk poll found on the Ramaswamy attack ad
The Columbus Dispatch reports that Suffolk surveyed 500 likely voters. Acton, the Democratic nominee, led Ramaswamy 48% to 44%, with Libertarian Don Kissick at 3.6%.
Among independents, Acton led 58% to 25%. Ramaswamy’s unfavorable rating rose to 54.2%, up from 52.2% a month ago, while Acton’s stayed near 41%.
Nearly 72% of respondents had seen or heard about the ad, according to Straight Arrow News. In the Dispatch’s account, seven respondents said it made them switch from Ramaswamy to Acton. One said it moved them the other way.
Seven people out of 500 is a hint, not a verdict.
A caution on the numbers
Polling on the Ohio governor ad is not telling one clean story. Suffolk’s late-September survey had Acton ahead 50.4% to 41.4%. Ramaswamy’s deficit actually shrank from nine points to four. Outlets also disagree on the switcher figures, and we could not obtain the pollster’s own release.
A separate Republican-commissioned poll, obtained by Axios, points the other direction. It shows Acton up 8 points after she led by 2 earlier in October, before the ad. The sponsor and pollster are unnamed. A memo attached to the poll says the ad “is having a significant effect on the gubernatorial race.”
Other polls vary widely too. Marist’s Oct. 20 survey had Acton up 50% to 43%. An ActiVote poll, mostly fielded before the ad, had Ramaswamy ahead by 2.8. The RealClearPolling average of seven polls has Acton up about 4.3 points.
The spot features Donna Arthur, Acton’s birth mother. She calls her daughter “a liar” and insinuates she has mental health issues. The AP reported that the Ramaswamy campaign confirmed it produced the ad. The campaign said it would spend $4 million to promote it and that Arthur was not paid.
Acton says the state removed her from her mother’s custody at 12, after her stepfather was indicted on a rape charge. According to the Dispatch, she has not spoken to her mother since 1978. Acton told Spectrum News she would not “normalize somebody who has said that my childhood is just something I’m complaining about.”
The ad drew criticism from fellow Republicans, including Gov. Mike DeWine and former Gov. John Kasich. They urged Ramaswamy to pull it, per CNN. Vice President Vance and President Trump defended it. We covered whether Ramaswamy crossed a line with Acton’s mother.
Now the Washington Examiner reports that Ramaswamy has pulled the ad. The report does not say whether it came off every platform or only some. We also could not confirm whether the $4 million buy is cancelled, or whether the campaign has issued a statement. Until it does, treat “pulled” with caution.
Here’s the thing: why the Ramaswamy Acton ad matters to Ohio voters
Ohio has never elected a woman governor. Trump carried the state by 8 to 11 points in all three of his runs. Even so, Cook Political Report moved this race to Lean Democratic on Oct. 23, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball did the same a day earlier.
Ohio voters should care because the governor sets the state budget, picks agency heads and signs or vetoes the bills that touch daily life. Ohio is also a former bellwether that has drifted right, so a competitive race here signals how nervous Republicans are nationally. Our look at the Ramaswamy–Acton showdown covers the stakes in more detail.
Money is not the issue. By mid-October, Ramaswamy and his allies had spent about $101 million on ads against Acton, with $36 million of it his own. So the question is simple. Did a late, personal attack work, or did it remind voters why they dislike attack ads? That is the real test of the Ramaswamy Acton ad.
Marist also found a gap between expectation and preference. There, 49% of likely voters said they expect Ramaswamy to win, and 45% said Acton. Voters may expect one outcome while leaning toward another.
What happens next after the Ramaswamy ad
Watch for final-week polls, any change in the forecasters’ ratings, and a response from the Ramaswamy campaign. Also watch the Ohio GOP, where the open split with DeWine and Kasich could linger. Ohio also has a competitive Senate race between Sherrod Brown and Jon Husted, so a shift at the top of the ticket matters well beyond one governor’s mansion. Our report on the Ohio Senate race spoiler push covers that contest.
Check Ohio’s secretary of state website for voting deadlines and your polling place. One poll will not settle whether the ad moved votes. A week from now, the ballots will.
