An estimated $137 million is being spent on AI-generated political ads, according to a GeekWire commentary on Wesleyan Media Project data. Many are cosmetic. Others are built to deceive, and the 2026 midterm elections are eight days away.
Here is what touches your life: control of the House, 35 Senate seats and more than 30 governorships is on the ballot on Nov. 3, according to Britannica’s 2026 midterm guide. Early voting is already underway, and deadlines vary by state. Check your local election office this week. In Texas, the registration deadline has already passed.
The ads are nasty, and some are fake
One Fox News opinion column calls this possibly the nastiest barrage of attack ads yet. That’s one writer’s view. The AI part is harder to argue with.
One example is a deepfake video of Texas Senate candidate James Talarico. It has been tied to the campaign of his opponent, Ken Paxton, according to Axios.
There is no federal law on deepfake political ads. Instead, states have a patchwork. Michigan, for one, requires a disclosure on deceptive deepfake ads published within 90 days of an election.
Here’s the thing: if a video of a candidate looks shocking, check the source before you share it. That goes double this close to the November election.
Midterm races: the forecasts disagree, so don’t trust any one number
Every forecaster has Democrats ahead in the House. They just don’t agree on how far. Decision Desk HQ’s forecast, updated Oct. 25, gives Democrats a 79% chance of winning the House and a 56% chance in the Senate. Newsweek, citing Silver Bulletin, puts those odds at 95% and 76.4%.
Newsweek notes that other averages show a tighter Senate fight. Betting markets like Kalshi lean Democratic too, but a betting market is not a poll. It’s a crowd putting money behind a guess.
A forecast is a probability, not a result, and nobody has called a single race.
All 435 House seats are up, and 218 wins a majority. Republicans hold the House now. The president’s party usually takes a beating in midterms, but that isn’t a guarantee.
The Texas Senate race is the one to watch in the 2026 midterms
The most-traded race on Kalshi is the Texas Senate contest. Traders have Talarico, a Democrat, ahead of Paxton, a Republican, 65% to 35%, per the market’s own page. Remember, that’s trader sentiment, not votes.
Maine, where Susan Collins faces Troy Jackson, and Michigan, where Mike Rogers faces Abdul El-Sayed, are also listed as competitive, which is why those contests bear watching.
Early voting is already shaping the midterm vote
CNN reports that as many as two-thirds of all votes could come by mail or early voting. But early-vote data shows only how voters are registered, not how they voted. The early pool also tends to skew older and less Republican than the full electorate. Anyone claiming to read the outcome from early turnout is guessing.
Texas early voting runs through Oct. 30, according to the Dallas Morning News. North Carolina’s in-person early voting ends Oct. 31, per the state elections board. Florida voters searching for results should also read why they keep seeing August dates.
What to expect after the polls close on the November election
Don’t expect every answer on election night. States with heavy mail voting can take time to count, and early-vote totals are not results. Wait for the Associated Press or a major network to call a race, and be wary of anyone who calls it first.
Winners are sworn in to the 120th Congress in early January 2027. Between now and then, the real question is the one every campaign is dodging: how many voters tune out the noise and just show up?
