More than 485,000 New Yorkers voted in the first two days of early voting, up roughly 85% from the same stretch in 2022, when about 262,000 did, Spectrum News reports. Meanwhile, New York governor race polls still show Gov. Kathy Hochul ahead of Republican Bruce Blakeman by double digits.
What does that mean for you? Whoever wins on Nov. 3 takes office Jan. 1 and sets the state’s course on child care, taxes and the congestion toll. The two candidates are offering opposite deals, and a week remains to pick one.
Blakeman Goes After the Toll
Blakeman, the Nassau County Executive, held a news conference on the Upper East Side. He stood under a sign marking the congestion pricing zone, and repealing the program is part of his platform. “As you can see, there’s no congestion relief here even though she’s collecting nine dollars per car just for the privilege of driving on this public road that the taxpayers have already paid for,” he said, according to a syndicated WABC report.
He also argues that New York has become too expensive to live in. His plan would eliminate state income taxes on the first $50,000 for single filers. It would do the same on the first $100,000 for joint filers.
He also wants to lower utility costs by expanding natural gas production. Public safety and immigration round out his pitch.
Hochul Defends the Record
Hochul, meanwhile, is leaning on jobs and child care. She says New York has created more than 800,000 jobs since she took office, “at a time when other states are losing jobs,” she told ABC7 New York. On congestion pricing, she was blunt: “We fight over congestion pricing; we’re the only place in the country that has it.”
On Sunday she campaigned in Brooklyn with New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, promoting child care relief and universal free school meals. She has also proposed expanding universal child care statewide.
“I can work with the mayor and tell a family that you do not have to spend $20,000 to $40,000 per year on child care,” she said, per CBS New York. Her campaign is also running a multimillion-dollar final-week ad push tying Blakeman to President Trump, amNY reports.
What the Hochul Blakeman Polls Say
The latest Quinnipiac University poll, released Oct. 21 among likely voters, has Hochul at 55% and Blakeman at 41%. Marist (Oct. 1-4, registered voters) had it 53-42. Emerson/PIX11 (Oct. 3-5, 900 likely voters, margin of error 3.3 points) had it 52.4-39.7. Siena’s September survey had Hochul up 50-41. Together, the polls put her lead at roughly 9 to 14 points, depending on the pollster and on whether it surveys registered or likely voters. Our breakdown of where Hochul’s lead runs thinnest shows why NY governor polls look tighter upstate. Decision Desk HQ gives Hochul a 90% chance of winning.
The Quinnipiac numbers also show why each candidate is hammering a different message. Voters who say cost of living is their top issue back Hochul 71-24. Voters who say immigration is the top issue back Blakeman 71-28. Independents lean Blakeman, 51-44.
Early Voting Surge Tests the Polling
So who is actually showing up? Here is the thing: early-vote totals do not show party share, so they are a poor crystal ball. Democrats are hoping for a 2018-style surge, and suburban turnout is up in Rockland and Westchester. Meanwhile, some Republicans are hoping for another polling miss.
What Happens After the Polling Ends
Early voting runs through Nov. 1. Election Day is Nov. 3, with polls open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. New York City holds about 40% of the state’s registered voters, so turnout there matters. Voters will also decide congressional races in NY-17 and NY-21 the same day. For more on how forecasts can mislead, see why midterm betting odds can fool you.
For a typical New York household, the choice is concrete. Voters can keep congestion pricing and bet on child care expansion. Or they can scrap the toll and bet on an income tax cut.
Two promises, one ballot, and a week left to decide which one to believe.
