More than 1.2 million New Yorkers voted early in the first six days, roughly double the same stretch in 2022. That surge shaped the final weekend of the New York governor race as early voting closed Sunday and Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican Bruce Blakeman made their last big pushes before Tuesday’s election.
Hochul spent Sunday in New York City with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Mayor Zohran Mamdani, according to NBC New York. She also appeared with Council Speaker Julie Menin. Blakeman, the Nassau County Executive, spoke to supporters at a golf course in Northport, Long Island, and plans a statewide sweep on Monday.
Every public poll we found has Hochul comfortably ahead. The latest Siena poll has her at 54% to Blakeman’s 40%. Our look at how Hochul leads Blakeman by 11 to 14 points breaks down the rest of the numbers.
Why the New York gubernatorial election matters beyond Albany
This race is not just a contest for a office in Albany. The governor sets the state budget, so the winner decides your income and business taxes, your energy bills and what Medicaid covers. Blakeman has pledged no tax increases and promises to cut energy costs. Hochul is campaigning against Medicaid cuts and higher health insurance costs. Whoever wins, your wallet feels it.
The closing arguments in the NY governor’s race
Blakeman’s message is affordability. “Our electric bills are 70% higher than the national average because of Kathy Hochul,” he said at a Staten Island rally, and on Sunday he called himself “poised to have a stunning victory on Tuesday night to save our state.”
Hochul’s message is a warning. “People are turning out to vote because they want to make sure that we don’t get a crazy Trump guy in the governor’s mansion in Albany,” she told supporters on Friday.
Blakeman has also accused Hochul and Mamdani of a “secret pact.” ABC7 reports Hochul has rejected that claim, and we found no evidence of any pact.
Early voting turnout is the story
Here’s the thing: turnout may decide this race. More than 1.2 million New Yorkers voted early in the first six days, according to WRGB. The same stretch in 2022 produced 603,725 ballots. That is roughly double.
In New York City, more than 468,000 people had voted through Friday night, with Brooklyn leading at about 142,000, FOX 5 reports. Early voting counts don’t show party share, so nobody can say yet who benefits.
Still, the stakes are clear. Hochul’s 2022 win was the closest New York gubernatorial election since 1994. She took 53.1% of the vote, and experts credit low New York City turnout for the narrow margin. This year, the city’s early vote runs far above that mark. For the national picture, see our midterm forecast for the House and Senate.
Tuesday gets the final word.
