Two days before the midterms, President Trump says the United States has “the concept of a very good deal” with Canada. What nobody has released is a single page of it. The Canada trade deal is still a promise, not a document.
Trump made the remarks to reporters after landing in Dubuque, Iowa, on Sunday, Nov. 1, according to AP-based reporting. He said he had spoken with Prime Minister Mark Carney “in recent days” but, per Reuters, declined to give details. Even so, he sounded upbeat. “We are now very close to having a deal,” he said.
What Trump and Carney each said about the Canada trade deal
Carney, for his part, posted on X that he had a “good conversation” with Trump, building on “recent constructive discussions.” He said negotiators will work toward an agreement “in the coming weeks,” BNN Bloomberg reports.
Notice the gap. Trump says “very close.” Carney says “coming weeks.” Those are not the same clock.
Carney also set his own conditions. A deal, he said, must create jobs, boost affordability for families and fully respect Canada’s languages, culture and sovereignty. Meanwhile, the White House said it “welcomes continued engagement with Canada” toward a deal that delivers “meaningful results for the American people.”
Why the Canada tariff deal matters to your wallet
Here’s the thing: this fight has a price tag. After talks collapsed in August, Trump put 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods, and Canada hit back, AP reports. Canada’s retaliation targets steel, dairy, appliances, farm equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. Those are the kinds of goods that show up in a store, a barn or a job site near you.
Trump said a deal could erase the tariffs American farmers pay on goods going into Canada. He said it in Iowa, a farm state, days before voters go to the polls. Draw your own conclusions about the timing.
He also said the talks involve building the Keystone XL pipeline. One account claims Trump said Canada “will build and pay for” it, but we found that wording in only one aggregator’s text. Canada has not confirmed any pipeline commitment, so treat it as Trump’s claim, not a term of any Canadian trade pact.
The track record of this US-Canada trade agreement
We have been here before. In August, Trump announced a “DEAL!” with Canada and paused the tariffs for a few days. Then it fell apart, and the 50% tariffs took effect. The U.S. trade representative said Canada “declined to finalize the trade deal under the terms agreed earlier this week,” NBC News reported.
On Oct. 23, Trump said Canada was “working very hard to make a deal with us” and that the U.S. has “all the cards.” Carney’s framing is different. He has said movement toward a deal came because Washington was moving closer to Canada’s position.
Meanwhile, Canada is hedging. It launched a new economic and security alliance with the European Union on Friday, Oct. 30, and Carney wants to double non-U.S. exports over the next decade. Any Canada trade deal with Washington will have to compete with those new options.
What to watch next
Four things will tell you whether this is real:
- A written text or an official statement from the U.S. trade representative.
- Whether the 50% U.S. tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory tariffs actually come off.
- Any Keystone XL commitment from Ottawa.
- The next annual review of the USMCA, the North American trade pact. The U.S. declined to extend it on July 1, which triggered yearly reviews, White & Case notes.
One more caution. BNN also relays a Monday comment from Carney that he can’t guarantee Trump will respect anything signed. We could not match that to a second outlet yet, so we’re not leaning on it.
So here is where the Canada trade deal stands: a concept, a hopeful tone from both sides, and zero published terms.
Until someone shows the paper, “very close” is just a phrase. So where’s the paper?
