If you haven’t gotten your flu shot yet, this is the week to do it. The early flu season has already arrived, and it showed up about 2.5 months ahead of schedule. A mutated H1N1 virus is spreading fast, and doctors are telling families to stop waiting. Here’s what you need to know to protect yourself and the people around you.
Why is everyone searching this today? CNN reported this morning that the flu is hitting the West Coast at midwinter levels in October. Many people want to know whether they’re covered. Here are five things to know.
1. The early flu season started in the wrong place
It began on the West Coast, not in the South. Flu usually starts in the South, often Florida, then moves north. This year the Pacific states went first, according to Dr. Alex Greninger of the University of Washington.
About 1 in 10 flu tests in Washington state came back positive last week. “We’re basically seeing January levels of flu in the last week,” Greninger told CNN. In the region covering Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada, positivity hit at least 10%.
2. A mutated virus is driving the early flu surge
The culprit is H1N1, and it has changed in a way that matters. The version spreading now picked up a mutation called G155E that helps it dodge immunity. It showed up after health officials had already chosen this year’s vaccine strains in the spring. That timing helps explain why this flu season is starting early.
H1N1 made up 96% of the influenza A viruses subtyped by public health labs in the CDC’s latest report, per Medscape. In Japan, this version triggered school and day-care closures after cases surged in kids. Schools here are already dealing with another illness, as our look at COVID-19 rising across nearly every state shows.
3. The national numbers are still low, but they are rising
The picture is regional for now, and it is spreading. Nationally, about 2.1% of doctor visits last week were for flu-like illness. That’s still below the CDC’s national baseline, so the virus hasn’t taken off everywhere. In other words, the early influenza season is still a regional story.
But it’s moving. Johns Hopkins epidemiologist Dr. Caitlin Rivers says the South is catching up quickly. Walgreens says activity is tracking about four weeks ahead of recent seasons. The chain is dispensing more antivirals and cough and cold medicine than at this point last year, according to the company.
4. Your flu shot still helps, and sooner is better
Please don’t let the talk of a mutation talk you out of it. The shot targets an H1N1 version and should still give some protection, even if the virus can break through. A shot that softens the illness can make the difference between a hard week and a much harder month. With the flu season starting early, that protection matters even more.
Doctors usually tell people to get vaccinated before Halloween. Greninger’s advice this year is more urgent: “The time to get vaccinated was actually two to three weeks ago.” Rivers worries that people aren’t thinking about shots this early.
5. Your wallet matters in an early flu season, so check before you go
A flu shot is the smaller cost. Getting sick is the larger one. Last year, Reuters reported that an estimated 32 million Americans had the flu, 390,000 landed in the hospital and 24,000 died, according to its coverage. Doctors urge everyone 6 months and older to get vaccinated. If an early flu surge sends you to the doctor, the bills add up fast, and many families are already stretched elsewhere, as our report on home deals falling apart at the highest rate in nearly three years shows.
Coverage varies by plan, so call your insurer or check Medicare.gov or HealthCare.gov before you go. Ask your insurer whether your pharmacy is in network and whether it covers telehealth visits. Medscape notes that billing for molecular flu tests “can be a barrier” in some settings, so ask about testing costs up front.
Here’s the thing
This matters most for the people who can least afford a bad bout: kids, older relatives, and anyone already stretched thin on time and money. A shot now is a small errand that can spare your household a lot of worry later.
Nobody knows yet whether this season will be worse than usual. Greninger says a second wave in January through March wouldn’t surprise him. The CDC’s next weekly report and Walgreens’ weekly flu index should show where this goes next.
So book the shot this week, and ask the people you love whether they’ve booked theirs.
