A University of Houston poll of likely voters, taken Oct. 10-14, has Democrat James Talarico up 48-46 in Texas, according to Independent Voter News. Libertarian Ted Brown pulled 2.3% in 2024, which is larger than that two-point gap. Senate spoiler candidates could decide who controls the chamber on Nov. 3, and that decides who confirms federal judges and cabinet nominees.
The Senate spoiler candidates behind the headlines
The Washington Examiner reports that a handful of third-party candidates in close races could help decide which party runs the Senate. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for the majority. The Examiner names Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas as their best chances.
We could not confirm the Examiner’s specific list of four names, so we won’t guess at it. Other reporting, however, points to the same four states.
Libertarian spoilers in Ohio, Kansas and Texas
An AP report says Republicans worry that Libertarian candidates could siphon votes in Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Iowa. GOP Senate campaign officials told AP they worry less about Iowa, where Libertarians are not a regular ballot presence. The other three concern them more.
- Ohio: Bill Redpath, a former Libertarian Party national chairman, is running against Republican Sen. Jon Husted and Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown.
- Kansas: The Libertarian candidate, Graham, is on his second run. He took 3% in a race Sen. Jerry Moran won by 23 points.
- Texas: Ted Brown got 2.3% in 2024, when Sen. Ted Cruz won easily. This year Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, who has spent years as one of the state’s most prominent and polarizing Republicans.
Gene Krebs, a Republican former Ohio state lawmaker, told AP, “Libertarians, we believe, could draw enough votes to affect the outcome in a number of these races.”
Is a 2% or 3% slice enough to matter? Only in a photo finish, and Texas may be exactly that. The poll’s two-point gap sits inside the typical margin of error, so a Libertarian pulling 2% can tip the result.
Ohio offers a similar test, with Brown facing a crowded field.
Alaska: spoiler candidates under investigation
Alaska is the strangest of the bunch. The New York Times reported Wednesday on alleged secret efforts to recruit challengers who could draw votes from incumbent Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan. The effort allegedly involved Mary Peltola’s Senate campaign, its lawyers and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. One recruit was named Dan J. Petersburg Sullivan, per Alaska Public Media.
None of this is proven. The Peltola campaign and the DSCC deny involvement, and Petersburg Sullivan says his campaign has no connection to Peltola’s.
The political fallout is real anyway. According to CNN’s live coverage, Alaska’s Republican governor ordered an investigation into whether criminal charges or civil penalties are warranted. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who has endorsed Sullivan, has demanded the “honest truth” from Peltola. Under state rules, spoilers can reach the ballot by finishing in the top four in the primary.
The stakes are high. Cook Political Report rates Alaska as one of six GOP-held toss-ups, and CNN’s Oct. 22 ranking put it third on its list of seats most likely to flip.
What a Senate third-party vote means for voters
Votes for a third-party candidate still count, and plenty of voters pick one on purpose. The spoiler debate is really about two other things. Can ballots confuse people, and is anyone gaming the system?
Both parties have a history of boosting weak candidates in the other party, often through anonymous PACs. This cycle simply draws more attention. Meanwhile, voters in swing areas agree on far more than the campaigns suggest, even if few act on it.
Money is part of the same story. The Fed is also watching the calendar.
What happens next for Senate spoiler candidates
Election Day is Nov. 3. Expect the post-election storyline to be simple arithmetic: compare third-party vote shares in Ohio, Kansas, Texas and Alaska with the final margins. Meanwhile, the Alaska investigation has no public timeline. We expect more responses from the Peltola campaign and the DSCC.
If the Senate comes down to one seat, the most important name on the ballot might be one nobody was talking about in September.
