Ken Paxton is getting a do-over in Tyler on Sunday, and this Paxton Tyler rally matters more than a routine rally. The Republican Senate nominee will hold a free “Come and Take It” bus-tour event at Republic Icehouse on University Boulevard, with doors opening at 11 a.m., according to the Tyler Morning Telegraph. Election Day is Tuesday, so the clock is nearly out.
Here’s the thing: East Texas is where a Republican nominee goes to run up the score, and Tyler is one of its anchors. Paxton already tried to make a stop here once. He had a Tyler event on the calendar for Thursday, but he then dropped it to appear with Vice President JD Vance in Weatherford. Sunday’s rally is the do-over. For more on that Vance trip, see our report on JD Vance’s third Texas visit.
Why the Tyler Senate rally matters
Tyler sits in Smith County, a Republican stronghold in East Texas. It’s the kind of place where a GOP nominee needs big turnout and big margins. Paxton said as much at an Oct. 13 rally there with Vance. “It’s up to East Texas,” he told the crowd, per the Telegraph.
This will be his fourth Tyler appearance this year, so the Paxton East Texas rally is hardly a surprise. Meanwhile, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has been through town twice, in February and October. Neither campaign is treating the area as an afterthought.
The cancellations are a story too
Paxton’s schedule has shifted a lot this week. He also canceled stops in El Paso and Texarkana to make room for the Weatherford event with Vance. A spokesperson, Madison Cercy, said that with less than a week to go, “schedules change quickly and logistics required us to postpone the El Paso stop,” as reported by the El Paso Times via Yahoo.
Smith County GOP Chair David Stein backed the change. When a candidate can campaign with the vice president, he said, you campaign with the vice president. That logic makes the Paxton campaign in Tyler easier to understand.
Talarico tells a different story. He told CNN that Paxton is dropping events because “nobody is showing up,” as Newsweek characterized it. Paxton’s camp disputes that claim and points to scheduling. Either way, Sunday’s turnout will be the easiest test anyone gets.
Where the race stands before the Paxton Tyler rally
Over 6.7 million Texans voted early, so Sunday is about persuading stragglers and firing up Election Day voters. Our look at record early voting shows how big that turnout was. The race is tight, and the polls show it:
- Fox News (Oct. 15-19): tied at 49%.
- CNN/SSRS (Oct. 20-27): Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%, margin of error 4.2 points.
- Texas Southern University: Talarico 49%, Paxton 47%.
- Texas Public Opinion Research (Oct. 23): Talarico 51%, Paxton 47%.
Most of those gaps sit inside or near the margin of error. Decision Desk HQ’s forecast gives Talarico a 59% chance and Paxton 41%, but a forecast is not a result. Plenty of analysts note Texas Republicans have a history of beating polls here. In fact, no Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and the party hasn’t won a Senate race here since 1988. Republicans still worry, as our poll breakdown explains.
What to watch after the Paxton Tyler stop
After Tyler, Paxton’s schedule has him in San Antonio Sunday evening. His Election Day watch party is Tuesday night. Outlets differ on his exact final itinerary, so expect more changes.
On election night, skip the topline for a minute and check Smith County and the rest of East Texas. If Paxton’s rural push worked, you’ll see it in the margins there first.
Nobody can know Sunday’s attendance yet, and nobody should claim to. Packed room or thin one, the only crowd that counts shows up Tuesday.
