Three days before Election Day, the 2026 midterm polls are saying one thing loudly and another quietly. Loudly: Democrats lead the national picture by about 8 points. Quietly: control of the Senate hangs on a handful of races inside the margin of error, with Texas right in the middle. Even so, the midterm elections are not over until the ballots are counted.
Midterm elections: a steady Democratic lead nationally
Democrats lead the generic ballot 51.4% to 43.2%, or +8.2, in RealClearPolling’s average. Meanwhile, Yahoo News puts the lead at nearly 9 points, and says it has held steady for a month.
President Trump’s approval is a big reason why. Net approval sits at minus 26 in the NYT/Siena poll and minus 35 in both CNN/SSRS and Reuters/Ipsos. That is the kind of number that usually costs the president’s party seats.
Still, polls are not ballots. In late October 2018, Trump was about 10 points underwater, and Republicans went on to lose 41 House seats. That’s the Democrats’ hope.
The rest of this article is why they can’t relax. (You can also see how the midterms are already moving markets and your 401(k).)
The Senate math for the 2026 midterms is tight
Democrats hold 47 seats and need 51 for control. That means they must flip four Republican-held seats. CNN’s analysis says the range of outcomes is enormous, with many races inside the margin of error, including Michigan, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina.
Here is where the other key races stand, according to the latest polling:
- Michigan: CNN’s poll has Democrat Abdul El-Sayed up 7, but six of the last eight quality polls showed no clear leader.
- Maine: Democrat Jackson, who replaced Graham Platner as the nominee, leads Susan Collins by 2 to 7 points, including +4 in CNN’s poll and +2 in Marist’s.
- North Carolina: Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley by nearly 11 points on average.
- Georgia: Jon Ossoff leads Collins by an average of 9 points in October polls.
- Alaska: Mary Peltola is ahead of Dan Sullivan by 2 to 7 points.
- Iowa: the last five quality polls show no clear leader.
- South Carolina: CNN calls the 48% to 48% poll this week the first quality poll there, a dead heat in a state Trump won by nearly 18 points in 2024.
- Kansas: no clear leader, with Roger Marshall at 45%.
Notice the pattern. On paper, Democrats can win the Senate without Texas, but only if nearly every close race breaks their way.
That’s why Texas matters so much in this midterm vote.
Texas: the race that could decide the midterms
Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in most recent polls. Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide in three decades, so a Talarico win would be a big deal. The polls, though, disagree on how big a lead he has:
- CNN/SSRS (923 likely voters, Oct. 20-27, margin of error 4.2): Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%.
- Texas Southern University/YouGov (2,000 likely voters, Oct. 21-25): Talarico 49%, Paxton 47%.
- ActiVote (400 likely voters, Oct. 22-28, margin of error 4.9): Talarico 52.1%, Paxton 47.9%.
- Marist (Oct. 8-11, likely voters): Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%.
- RealClearPolling average (Oct. 8-27): Talarico +2.1.
So the honest read is a Talarico lead of somewhere between 2 and 6 points. That is real, but the smaller polls carry larger margins of error. Republicans in Texas also tend to vote on Election Day. CNN’s poll further found at least 1 in 8 likely voters in Michigan, Texas and Kansas who say they could still change their minds.
Talarico’s strength is notable. CNN’s poll has him at 63% among Latino likely voters. Texas Southern University found 6% of Republicans planning to cross over to him. Rice University political scientist Mark Jones framed the stakes, saying that crossover is the gap between Paxton being ahead by a few points and Talarico being ahead by a few points.
Paxton has called the tight race “shocking.” Cornyn lost the nomination to him, and Libertarian Ted Brown is also on the ballot. In the governor’s race, Marist has Gov. Greg Abbott up 4 points over Democrat Hinojosa among likely voters, but only 1 point among registered voters.
Early voting is breaking records before the midterms
AP counted more than 43 million early ballots five days out, nearly 10 million more than at the same point in 2022. In states that report party registration, about 6.8 million Democrats and 5.2 million Republicans had voted early.
Here’s the catch: that is not a vote count, and it doesn’t cover every voter.
South Carolina’s early vote is up 83% from 2022. The University of Florida Election Lab, cited by CBS News, counted 49,564,545 votes as of Friday evening. Texas early voting ended Friday. The Secretary of State reported more than 4.2 million early votes through Oct. 24, and Newsweek reports the total has since topped 6 million.
High turnout cuts both ways. Early votes show who is showing up, not who won.
The money in these midterm elections is staggering
AdImpact says ad spending and reservations hit a record $11.21 billion, passing the 2024 cycle’s $11.20 billion. (That figure includes future reservations and isn’t adjusted for inflation, so read the “record” with a squint.) A Washington Post analysis found $749 million spent in competitive races in just the week of Oct. 20 to 27.
California’s governor race has drawn $349.4 million, the most expensive ever, though much of it was spent in the primary. Georgia’s governor race is at $297 million. Newsweek reports Republicans have spent more opposing Talarico than any other candidate.
Governors and the House in the midterm elections: what we can say
Governors are the least-polled part of this picture, so treat this as a snapshot. Cook Political Report moved the Kansas and Nebraska governor races slightly toward Democrats. Time’s rundown, from Oct. 21, calls Georgia essentially tied, Nevada (Lombardo vs. Ford) a toss-up, and Oregon “Lean Democrat.” Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted 21 races toward Democrats.
As for the House, reliable seat forecasts aren’t confirmed in our reporting yet, so we won’t guess. Instead, watch the national generic ballot. An 8-point lead has historically been enough to flip the chamber.
What to watch before Election Day
Here’s the thing: the campaign is still moving, and so are the stakes for anyone who follows the Senate. Trump rallied in Daytona Beach, Florida on Friday, canceled Iowa and Kansas rallies Thursday, then reinstated them. He is scheduled to hit both states Sunday, Nov. 1.
That tells you where Republicans think the Senate is closest.
So today, watch the weekend early-vote totals and the final polls in Texas, Iowa and Kansas. Republican turnout on Tuesday is the one number that could make every poll above look too rosy for Democrats.
If the polls are right, Democrats have a great night. If they’re off, even by 3 points, the Senate stays red. Tuesday finds out which.
