One week before Election Day, the number on the gas station sign still starts with a 4. Gas prices and midterm voters are on a collision course: the national average is north of $4 a gallon, and the polls say a lot of people are not happy about it.
Here’s the number to remember. AAA put the national average for regular at $4.2858 on Monday. GasBuddy’s weekly read is a bit lower at $4.24, so the tracker you check matters. Either way, it has been above $4 since late July.
The polls on gas prices and the midterms are not close
The NYT/Siena poll, as reported by Newsweek, found 73% of likely voters disapprove of President Trump’s handling of gas prices. Only 24% approve. It was his worst issue in the survey.
The disapproval is not just coming from one side. In that poll, 77% of independents and 42% of Republicans disapprove. So do 43% of people who voted for Trump in 2024. His overall job approval sits at 36%, with 59% disapproving.
That is a lot of people who agree on one thing. When you’re paying the same pump price as everyone else, politics gets personal fast. For gas prices midterm voters are weighing, the verdict so far is blunt.
How we got here
The pain traces back to the Iran war and instability around the Strait of Hormuz. According to AAA data cited by ABC News, prices are up nearly $1.30, or 43%, since the war began in February. Crude is hovering near $100 a barrel.
A year ago, regular gas averaged about $3.07. This October is on track to be the most expensive on record, according to AAA’s Georgia office. That puts the pump prices election watchers are tracking at historic levels.
There was one small bit of good news this week. AAA says the average fell 6 cents as stations switched to cheaper winter-blend gasoline. But high crude limits how far prices can drop. In other words, don’t expect a miracle at the pump.
Gasoline costs voters feel beyond the pump
If you only watch the gas station sign, you’re missing half the story. Diesel is the quiet problem. GasBuddy has it at $6.34, up 4 cents in a week. Diesel moves trucks, and trucks move your groceries.
That may be why the CNBC survey found something surprising. Food (34%) worried voters more than gas (23%). Combined, food, gas and housing costs were the top concern for 57% of registered voters. Only 35% said the war was worth it given what it has done to gas prices.
Here’s the thing: the pump is just the most visible price on the board. Your commute, your grocery bill and your holiday flight are all tied to the same oil market.
The inflation report tells the same story. AP reported that inflation worsened to 3.7% in September, with gas jumping more than 9% in a month. Airfares are up about 22% from a year ago. Our own look at the September inflation report breaks down the rest.
Where you live changes the pain, too. The cheapest states are North Carolina ($3.55), Georgia ($3.70) and Texas ($3.76). But even those pay roughly a dollar more than a year ago. Hawaii is at $5.65 and California has been near $6.
The Marshall problem and the midterm gas price impact
One race shows how awkward this can get for the party in power. In July, Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall said “the midterms will be decided by the price of gasoline in October,” according to CNN’s KFile. Now he’s in an unexpectedly close race with Democrat Adam Hamilton.
Gas is up more than 57% in Kansas since the war began.
History offers a warning for both parties. In 2022, gas fell about $1.25 from its peak by late October, yet many voters said they didn’t feel any relief. Democrats still lost the House. Falling prices don’t always fix a bad mood, so the midterm gas price impact is hard to predict.
What happens next
Don’t count on a pump price break before Election Day on Nov. 3. Analysts told ABC News gas will almost certainly stay above $4 through then. Prediction-market traders on Kalshi gave it an 87% chance back on Oct. 8, according to CNBC.
The big swing factor is the Strait of Hormuz. Any change there moves crude, and crude moves your wallet. Early voting is already underway in many states, so plenty of people have cast ballots with gas at $4 and change.
Main Street is feeling it too, as our report on small business, inflation and tariffs before the midterms shows.
One caution on the politics. No one can say exactly how many votes gas prices will move. The experts are making educated predictions, not measurements. But when 73% of voters give a president thumbs down on the price of filling the tank, that’s not a number any campaign wants to see a week out.
Gas prices midterm voters keep in mind at the ballot box could matter more than anyone admits. So will the sticker shock follow them into the booth?
