Eight days out, the Texas Senate race is dead even. The latest Fox News poll has Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico tied at 49% among likely voters. Talarico led 51-49 in September.
The Texas Senate race polls, side by side
Look past any single survey and the picture is a toss-up with a slight Democratic lean. The Fox poll, conducted Oct. 15-19 with 1,398 likely voters, carries a margin of error of 2.5 points. Here’s how the other recent polls stack up:
- Emerson College: Talarico 49%, Paxton 48%, Libertarian Ted Brown 3%, per the Emerson release.
- University of Houston Hobby School: Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%, Brown 3% (Oct. 10-14, 2,000 likely voters, margin of error 2.9 points).
- Texas Public Opinion Research: Talarico 51%, Paxton 47%, Brown 2%.
- Rasmussen: Paxton 45%, Talarico 45%, Brown 5%.
Meanwhile, the 270toWin average of nine polls puts Talarico at 49.3% and Paxton at 47.3%. That’s a two-point gap, in a state where most of these polls can’t rule out a tie.
So who’s winning? Fox and Rasmussen say tied. Most others say Talarico by one to four. Every one of those gaps sits inside or near the margin of error, and a poll average is a snapshot, not a result.
The numbers underneath explain the standoff. In the Fox poll, 98% of Democrats back Talarico and 90% of Republicans back Paxton. Hispanic voters favor Talarico 64-34. Talarico’s favorability is 49%, while Paxton’s is 41%. Yet the two are tied, because partisan gravity in Texas is strong.
Why Texas voters are heading to the polls early
Early voting began Oct. 19 and ends Oct. 30. Turnout is strong. According to KPRC in Houston, Harris County had at least 362,534 ballots cast as of Oct. 22, a record pace. Dallas County was near 199,000. NBC News’s Decision Desk says Texas early voting is outpacing the same point in 2022, which shows how closely voters are watching this Lone Star Senate race.
Rice University’s Mark Jones, however, warned that Democrats leading early doesn’t mean they will lead overall. High turnout tells you people care. It doesn’t tell you who they’re voting for.
What the Texas Senate race means for you
Here’s the thing: if you live in Texas, your vote is not a rounding error. A race this close is decided by who actually shows up. And if you live anywhere else, this still lands on your doorstep, because the result bears on control of the U.S. Senate. Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, and in 2024 Ted Cruz beat Colin Allred 53% to 44.6%. A Talarico win would be a very big deal. So would a comfortable Paxton win, given how tight the polls look.
The money tells its own story. As of May, Talarico had raised $40.3 million to Paxton’s $7.6 million. Republicans were expected to spend about $250 million to change that picture, according to Cook Political Report, which has listed the race as Lean Republican (the last update I could confirm was Sept. 23). Much of that spending now flows into ads, including AI political ads nationwide. Republicans are also leaning on star power, as a Texas visit from JD Vance shows.
What happens next in the Texas Senate race
Early voting wraps Oct. 30, and Election Day is Nov. 3. Expect more final polls this week and daily county turnout updates. If you’re tempted to trust the betting markets instead, remember that the odds can mislead.
Until then, the only poll that counts is the one where you show up.
