One last poll, one 7-point lead and one very large asterisk. Democrat David Crowley is ahead in the Wisconsin governor’s race, according to the final Marquette Law School Poll before Election Day. He has 51% to Republican Tom Tiffany’s 44% among likely voters, with 4% undecided.
Here’s the part the headlines are skipping: that 7-point gap sits inside the poll’s margin of error, according to Marquette poll director Charles Franklin. So this is a lead, not a lock.
What the Wisconsin governor race poll actually says
Among all registered voters, the race is far tighter: Crowley 47%, Tiffany 44%, with 9% undecided, CBS 58 reports. The jump from 3 points to 7 comes from who pollsters think will actually show up.
The survey ran Oct. 14-22 and reached 818 registered Wisconsin voters, of whom 668 were identified as likely voters, per FOX 11. The margin of error is 4.3 points among registered voters and 4.7 among likely voters. That figure applies to each candidate’s share, so the gap between them can swing even more.
The trend is also worth a look. In Marquette’s September poll, Crowley led 49% to 46% among likely voters. In August it was 49% to 44%. WPR reports this is Crowley’s biggest lead since Marquette began polling the two men.
The independent vote is doing the heavy lifting
Independents who are likely voters broke 56% for Crowley and 26% for Tiffany, with 18% undecided. In a state that regularly swings on a few points, that gap is the story behind the story. It could decide the Wisconsin gubernatorial race all by itself.
Neither candidate is loved, though. Crowley is 37% favorable and 44% unfavorable, an improvement from September. Tiffany is 40% favorable and 50% unfavorable, a slide from his September numbers. Both are under water. The difference is direction.
Here’s the thing: it’s your grocery bill
The top issue for Wisconsin voters is inflation and the cost of living, named by 48% of respondents, according to FOX6. Whoever wins the race for Wisconsin governor will inherit a state budget, a property-tax fight and a pile of voters who feel squeezed at the checkout line, since Gov. Tony Evers isn’t running again. New Yorkers are fretting over similar pocketbook worries, as our look at the New York governor race polls shows.
The stakes go beyond one office. Democrats hold the governor, attorney general and secretary of state, while Republicans control both legislative chambers, Ballotpedia notes. If Crowley wins, Republicans cannot get a full trifecta. If Tiffany wins, Democrats cannot.
What this poll can’t tell you about the Wisconsin governor election
Polls are snapshots, not predictions. Franklin says the questioning wrapped up just before the Oct. 21 debate, so reaction to it isn’t captured. Franklin and Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki both say the debate produced no breakout moment, though Zepecki is a partisan voice.
Marquette also has a decent recent record. In 2022, its final poll had Evers and Michels tied at 48%, and Evers won 51% to 48%, per Yahoo News. That’s a reason to take the numbers seriously, not a guarantee.
What happens next
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Both candidates are on bus tours this final week, and the legislature, attorney general and other statewide offices are on the same ballot. This is the last Marquette poll before then, so the Wisconsin governor race now belongs to the voters. Wondering how turnout is shaping up elsewhere? Our report on Texas early voting turnout shows how fast the early vote is moving.
So the real question isn’t whether Crowley leads. It’s whether those likely voters actually show up.
