Nearly 5 million Texans had already voted by Tuesday morning, about 26% of registered voters, and there’s still a week to go. Texas early voting turnout is smashing records in a Senate race that polls say is basically tied.
Why should you care how fast Texans are voting? Early-vote speed and patterns show which voters are energized before Election Day. They also shape how each campaign spends its final week.
The Senate race is a dead heat. Early voting started Oct. 19 and runs through Friday, Oct. 30. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Texas Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are tied for a seat that could help decide control of the U.S. Senate. The polls show a dead heat, and every early-vote number gets read through that lens.
How big is Texas early voting turnout?
Big. Secretary of State Robert Howden announced that more than 4.2 million Texans cast ballots in the first six days. As of Monday, the state counted 4,538,667 early votes, in person and by mail. By Tuesday morning, KERA reported nearly 5 million, with about 215,000 of them by mail.
Turnout at this same point was roughly 21% in 2022 and 24% in 2018. Texas also has a record 19 million registered voters, 7.7% more than before the last midterm. Some of this is simply a bigger electorate. Still, not all of it.
The sources don’t fully agree on the comparison with 2018. The Texas Tribune put the first-seven-day rate at 23.4%, slightly behind 2018’s 24.3%, while KERA has Tuesday’s pace ahead of 2018. The days being compared may differ. Also, the state’s totals lag the counties’ own numbers, so every figure here is provisional.
Where Texas ballots cast are piling up
The biggest counties are driving the Texas early vote. As of Tuesday, Harris County had about 627,000 ballots (23% of its voters) and Dallas County about 416,000 (28%). Tarrant, Denton and Travis counties were all above 30%, and Bexar was near 24%.
Dallas County’s first-day total of 76,079 broke its old first-day record, set in 2020. Through day four, Dallas County was up 81% from the same point in 2022. Tarrant County also beat its 2022 first day, yet Tarrant, Denton and Collin counties came in below their 2024 first-day numbers.
In the Rio Grande Valley, turnout is about 64% above the same point in 2022. Even so, all four counties there still trail the statewide rate. Hispanic voters were 18% of early voters as of Sunday, one point higher than in 2024. Democrats say they need Latinos at about 24% of the final vote.
What early voting in Texas does and doesn’t tell us
So who’s winning? Don’t ask the early numbers. They’re not a scoreboard, and anyone claiming otherwise is guessing.
In the first seven days, a Texas Tribune analysis found 35% of ballots came from people who voted in a Democratic primary and 33% from Republican primary voters. About 29% hadn’t voted before, or had only voted in general elections. However, Republicans have historically voted more on Election Day. Roughly 2.1 million recent GOP primary voters hadn’t yet cast a general election ballot, according to the same analysis.
University of Kentucky political scientist D. Stephen Voss put it this way: “Voters turn out in large numbers when they perceive a contest to be close.” In other words, Texas early voting turnout tells you people care. It does not tell you who they picked.
The Paxton-Talarico polls: a statistical tie
The polls say the same thing. Talarico led in five of six recent public polls, all within the margin of error. Fox News had it tied at 49-49. A YouGov poll of 1,000 registered voters (Oct. 13-21) had Talarico up 50-45, while Emerson/Nexstar had him ahead 49-48. The RealClearPolitics average has Talarico at 48.4 and Paxton at 46.9. That’s a statistical tie.
Remember the backdrop. Trump carried Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024, and Democrats haven’t won a statewide race here since 1994. Paxton beat Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary to get here. Talarico is an Austin state representative running as the Democrat. If the polls are close to right, this is the closest Texas Senate race in a generation.
What happens next for Texas voter turnout
The last three early-voting days are Wednesday through Friday. The Tribune’s analyst estimates 20% to 30% of all votes may be cast in those three days. Experts expect about 10 million total votes, up from 8.1 million in 2022. That’s close to 2018’s 53% turnout for Texas voter turnout overall.
If you haven’t voted, you can use any early-voting site in your county of registration. Day-one lines of 30 to 45 minutes were common in the big North Texas counties, and some Tarrant sites saw waits near two hours. Voters can check details at the Secretary of State’s site. Officials say voting has been smooth. That said, a registration backlog tied to state software issues delayed or corrected thousands of voter records before early voting began.
The governor’s race is also on the ballot, so see who Gina Hinojosa is for that side of the ticket. Results come the night of Nov. 3.
Until then, treat every “who’s ahead” hot take about early voting like a weather forecast in a hurricane: interesting, but not the storm.
