Georgia’s early voting turnout set a midterm record, with about 2.8 million ballots cast before Election Day, according to Atlanta News First. That’s a huge number. It’s also one that can’t tell you who’s winning.
Here’s the thing: the Georgia early voting record is a story about enthusiasm, not a scoreboard. Tuesday, Nov. 3 is when Georgia finds out what all those early ballots actually say.
The numbers behind the Georgia early voting record
Early voting ran Oct. 13 through Oct. 30. Overall early turnout, including 118,329 absentee ballots, hit 2,810,170 as of Friday night. That beats the 2022 midterm early record of about 2.5 million, although the count isn’t final.
In-person early voting alone reached 2,691,841, also a record. By comparison, the 2022 in-person total was roughly 2.3 million, per the same report.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s office said Thursday that 2022’s in-person record had already fallen with a day to spare. Day one alone drew 188,667 in-person voters, against 134,962 in 2022, according to the state’s own tally. The busiest single day, Oct. 29, drew about 200,000 voters.
One caution on the math, because the percentages are doing some wandering. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution calls the total a 13% jump over 2022, while Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger earlier put it at five to seven percent higher with one fewer day of voting. The share of registered voters who have already cast ballots also varies, from 34% to 37.3%, depending on the source and the denominator. Remember that all of it is unofficial.
What Georgia’s record early vote can’t tell us
So who does this help? Honestly, nobody knows yet. Early turnout shows who showed up, not who they voted for.
The AJC says the numbers “can’t tell us” the outcome, and any claim that this pleases one party and rattles the other is analysis, not a measurement. National polling tells a similar story: Trump’s party trails by 8 points, yet the Senate is still a toss-up.
Even so, the data does show a shift in the early electorate. White voters made up about 50% of early turnout through Thursday and Black voters about 30%. Women were 56% and men 44%, per WABE. Rough Draft Atlanta reports that the early electorate is several points less white than in 2022 and 2024. Metro areas, which lean Democratic, posted higher early turnout than in 2022, while most rural counties, which lean Republican, were down.
Mail voting, meanwhile, fell by about half. That tracks with Georgia’s 2021 election law, which requires drop boxes to be indoors and open only during early-voting hours.
The races behind Georgia’s midterm turnout
Voters will pick a U.S. senator, a governor, a secretary of state and an attorney general. That is the ballot driving Georgia midterm turnout this year.
In the Senate race, Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff faces Republican Rep. Mike Collins. For governor, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms faces Republican Rick Jackson, a healthcare executive, in an open race created by Gov. Brian Kemp’s retirement, per CBS News Atlanta.
On the “tight finish” framing, the evidence is thinner than the headlines suggest. The Hill, citing Decision Desk HQ about two weeks ago, reported an 8.8-point polling average lead for Ossoff and called the governor’s race “much more competitive.” We haven’t seen fresh governor polling, so treat any prediction with caution.
Pocketbook worries may also play a role, as $4.29 gas and 73% disapproval give Trump a midterm problem at the pump.
What Georgia voters need to know after the early vote record
If you haven’t voted, Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. You must cast your vote at your assigned neighborhood precinct, and polls open at 7 a.m. Absentee ballots must reach your county election office by the time polls close. Official drop boxes, however, were only available during early-voting hours.
Watch two things Tuesday night. First, watch how quickly counties report their early votes, since Raffensperger has promised speedy results. Second, watch whether turnout in rural, Republican-leaning counties on Election Day offsets that metro-heavy early vote. In short, the Georgia early turnout record sets the stage, and Tuesday writes the ending.
Kemp has been posting videos urging Republicans to show up Tuesday, reminding them he first won in 2018 by under 55,000 votes. Georgia has a way of making every ballot count.
Two point eight million are already in the bank. Tuesday decides whether that’s enough.
