Halloween chocolate sales fell $33.1 million in the nine weeks to Oct. 17 compared with a year earlier, according to NIQ data reported by Reuters. The fun-size bar is having a rough year.
That is the biggest drop in at least three years. Shoppers are changing how they treat themselves, and the chocolate makers are feeling it.
The Halloween chocolate sales drop was all milk chocolate
Here is the detail that jumped out at me. The decline was led entirely by milk chocolate, the classic candy-bowl staple. White chocolate sales were flat. Dark chocolate was marginally higher.
In other words, the bag of fun-size favorites took the hit while the grown-up stuff held steady.
NIQ’s Chris Costagli put it plainly. “Shoppers are making very different choices around pack size, price and product,” he said, per Reuters. Translation: people are buying smaller bags, hunting for deals and skipping some of the usual brands.
Why trick-or-treat chocolate costs more for less
The price story is the real driver. Reuters reports that cocoa hit a record of about $12,000 per metric ton in 2024, and confectioners raised prices over the past three years to cope. Cocoa has since dropped to under $3,000 per metric ton.
Shelf prices, however, did not get the memo.
Hershey’s latest results show how that plays out. In its third quarter, net pricing rose about 11% while organic volume fell about 7%, according to Food Business Middle East & Africa. Shoppers, in short, balked at the higher prices.
Hershey also lowered its full-year organic sales growth target to 3%, according to its SEC exhibit. It cited weaker convenience-store demand and pressure on household budgets.
Hershey has now posted falling volumes for several quarters in a row. This chocolate sales drop is not a blip, because people are simply buying fewer bars at the higher price. The same squeeze has parents counting pennies elsewhere, too, as with the recalled kids’ toothpaste tubes families now have to replace.
Here’s the thing: relief is coming, slowly
The good news is that cheaper cocoa is starting to show up on the makers’ side of the ledger. Mondelez CFO Amit Banati said Thursday that the benefit of lower cocoa costs is beginning to come through. Mondelez, the owner of Cadbury, reported flat North America volumes and a 1.6% price increase in the third quarter.
But Reuters notes that tangible price relief for shoppers may take a while. Producers are also reformulating products and cutting chocolate content to save money.
So the bag may stay pricey, and the chocolate in it may be a little less chocolatey. Shocking absolutely no one, the savings do not pass through as fast as the price hikes did. For Halloween candy sales, that means shoppers may not feel relief this season.
Will the final Halloween candy sales tally change the picture?
One caution before anyone declares trick-or-treat dead. These figures cover the nine weeks to Oct. 17, not the full season. The last two weeks before Oct. 31 are when a lot of candy gets bought.
Halloween can account for nearly a fifth of annual U.S. confectionery retail sales, so the final tally matters. Full-season data from NIQ and others should show whether this early-season dip sticks.
For now, the lesson from the candy aisle is simple. When prices climb for three straight years, families start reaching for the smaller bag. Even the White House Halloween event arrives with a savings pitch this year.
The question the chocolate makers have to answer next is whether cheaper cocoa can win those shoppers back before next October.
