Kalshi gave Karen Bass a 57% chance right up to election night. City Councilmember Nithya Raman defeated the incumbent anyway in the Los Angeles mayor’s race, according to a CBS News projection, and Bass has conceded.
As a result, the second-largest city in America is about to get a mayor whom NBC describes as a democratic socialist.
Nobody had this penciled in. The 57% figure for Bass held through election night, Courthouse News reports. Bass led early. Then Raman overtook her in the early hours of Wednesday, and her lead kept growing.
The numbers behind the Los Angeles mayor’s race
The latest tally on NBC News’ results page has Raman at 52.1% and Bass at 47.9%, with 824,246 votes counted. That’s only about 75.7% of the expected vote. Meanwhile, KTLA put Raman’s edge at roughly 34,000 votes.
Now the fine print. About 266,000 ballots are still uncounted, and the race is not certified. Every call so far is a projection, and the margin is still moving. LAist notes that outlets called the race at different times. Still, Bass has conceded, so the scoreboard is no longer the story.
It’s also a rare result. Scripps reports Bass is the first Los Angeles mayor in two decades to lose a bid for reelection. She won in 2022 by beating billionaire Rick Caruso, becoming the city’s first Black woman mayor. One term later, she’s out.
How Raman won the LA mayoral election
Raman is 45, a council member since 2020, and NBC News describes her as a democratic socialist. Her pitch was homelessness, housing costs and public safety. She said she hit “a wall of inaction” at City Hall under Bass. She also announced her run in February, hours before the filing deadline, after previously endorsing Bass.
Bass, meanwhile, carried real baggage. A March LA Times poll found 56% of city respondents had an unfavorable view of her. Her handling of the January 2025 wildfires was also a campaign issue.
The polls told a bumpy story. In late September, a UC Berkeley IGS poll had Raman up 39% to 28%. By Oct. 28, the same pollster had them tied at 40% among likely voters. Voters broke late, and they broke her way.
It was also an all-Democrat fight. In the June 8 primary, Bass took 34.68%, Raman 27.12%, and Republican reality star Spencer Pratt 26.69%. Pratt missed the runoff, which left one Democrat to beat the other. For more on how that outsider push played out, see our earlier look at Spencer Pratt’s runoff bid.
What the Los Angeles mayor election means for the city
The first fight is the police department. The Los Angeles Police Protective League, the rank-and-file officers’ union, backed Bass. Raman has called for replacing Police Chief Jim McDonnell. An LAPD union official warned that officers would leave if she wins, and NBC Los Angeles put the word “Armageddon” in its headline.
Here’s the thing: police staffing is a pocketbook and safety issue for every resident, so expect it to be the first real test of the new mayor.
Then there’s the bigger picture. If Raman’s win holds, NBC reports three major cities will be run by democratic socialist mayors: New York with Zohran Mamdani, Washington with Janeese Lewis George, and Los Angeles. One caution on labels, though. Outlets disagree on how tightly Raman is tied to the Democratic Socialists of America, so we’re calling her what NBC does and leaving it there.
She isn’t running on pure ideology, either. Her backers include the Sierra Club and Unite Here Local 11. Before the council, she co-founded a homeless advocacy nonprofit. Those are the people she’ll have to deliver for, on a housing and homelessness problem that voters just said hasn’t been fixed. California has big statewide choices too, as the final governor’s race polls show.
What happens next after the race for LA mayor
Three things to watch. First, the county registrar will keep counting and eventually certify the results, though we couldn’t confirm the date. Second, Raman’s transition team and first cabinet picks will show how hard she plans to push. Finally, the McDonnell question will tell us whether the officer exodus warning was a bluff or a forecast.
Los Angeles voters wanted a change, and they got a big one. Can City Hall deliver it?
