A 24-point polling lead. A 97% to 99% chance on prediction markets. With Election Day tomorrow, every recent poll shows Democrat Xavier Becerra far ahead of Republican Steve Hilton, and the only real argument left is how big the margin will be.
The numbers aren’t close to close. The polls we found put Becerra ahead by roughly 20 to 27 points, and the polling averages sit around 24. Hilton’s best hope is a polling miss bigger than anything California has seen in modern memory. That’s less a strategy than a prayer.
California governor polls: the final numbers
Pollsters don’t agree on the exact gap, but they agree on the story. Here’s what the final stretch of California governor polls looks like, with each pollster’s own fieldwork dates:
- Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times (Oct. 19-25, 1,477 likely voters): Becerra 61%, Hilton 34%, 5% undecided.
- Public Policy Institute of California (Oct. 16-22, likely voters): Becerra 61%, Hilton 37%.
- Emerson College (Oct. 17-19, likely voters): Becerra 60%, Hilton 33%, per CalMatters. Another listing shows 64-36, which may include leaners.
- SurveyUSA (Oct. 19-24, 799 likely voters): Becerra 54%, Hilton 32%.
- Politico/Citrin: Becerra up 20, the low end of the recent polls.
RealClearPolling’s average of five polls has Becerra at 58.2% to Hilton’s 34.2%. That’s a 24-point cushion. The 27-point figure is the high end, not the consensus, so treat any single poll with some caution.
What the California governor survey results say about your wallet
The biggest issue on voters’ minds isn’t partisan at all. In the PPIC survey, 45% of adults and 38% of likely voters named cost of living, inflation and the economy as the top issue. So whoever wins the next job in Sacramento inherits the pain at the grocery store and the gas pump, not a victory lap.
A Becerra win would also make him California’s first Latino governor and its 41st. Berkeley IGS found 55% of voters said they feel “proud” that the state may see that milestone.
Why the Becerra Hilton polling looks so lopsided
Party loyalty is doing most of the work. In the two polls USA Today cited, more than 90% of Democrats and Republicans plan to back their own nominee. In a state with far more registered Democrats, that math is brutal for the GOP.
Independents don’t rescue Hilton either. Emerson found them breaking for Becerra, 46% to 36%. As Emerson College Polling’s Spencer Kimball put it, independents are “a group Hilton would need more support among to compete in the general election.”
Voters see it coming, too. Berkeley IGS found 71% expect Becerra to win and just 16% expect Hilton to. When even the other side expects to lose, turnout energy is hard to find. For a broader look at how national polling compares, see our piece on where the midterm map stands three days out.
CalMatters says the race is “winding to a predictable end,” with Becerra leading since the June 2 top-two primary. The California governor race polls back that up. CalMatters also reports that Becerra campaigned lightly over the summer. In the final weeks, he has mostly appeared at events against Proposition 39, the Republican-backed voter ID measure, and for Democratic legislative candidates.
What to watch Tuesday
A blowout at the top doesn’t make the rest of the ballot boring. California voters also decide 14 ballot measures, 11 other statewide offices and 100 legislative seats. Watch the Prop 39 voter ID result closely.
If you haven’t voted yet, mail ballots have gone to every California voter. The registration deadline was Oct. 19, but conditional same-day registration is available for anyone who missed it. Our guide to key voting dates in San Diego covers the details. The fight over ballot warrants before certification is worth following afterward.
A poll isn’t a result, and we haven’t verified the counting timeline or the certification date. But the only open question is whether Becerra’s margin lands closer to 20 or closer to 30.
