Prediction markets give Democrat Xavier Becerra a 96% chance of winning the California governor’s race on Nov. 3. The polls say the same thing. Becerra leads Republican Steve Hilton by double digits in every California governor poll we found.
California governor polls: how big is Becerra’s lead?
Big. The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll, released Oct. 28, has Becerra at 61% and Hilton at 37% among likely voters. PPIC’s September survey had it 60% to 38%, so the gap has barely moved. An Emerson College poll, reported by Courthouse News, put Becerra at 60% to Hilton’s 33%, with 7% undecided.
The tightest result came from SurveyUSA for KGTV, fielded Oct. 19 to 24. It had Becerra at 54% and Hilton at 32%. “Tightest” is doing a lot of work there, because that is still a 22-point gap. The RealClearPolling average, cited by MultiState, sits at Becerra 57.6 and Hilton 34.0, and MultiState rates the race “Solid D.”
Hilton’s number ranges from 32% to 37% depending on the poll.
What the betting markets say about the California governor odds
Markets agree with the polls. Kalshi showed Becerra at about 96% and Hilton at 4% in late October. Other trackers have put Becerra between 97% and 98%. Those prices move daily, so check them before you quote anyone.
One caution: a market price is a crowd’s bet, not a count of votes. It looks smart until it doesn’t.
Becerra vs Hilton: who are the candidates?
Becerra is a former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary under President Biden, a former California attorney general and a 24-year congressman. He finished first in the June top-two primary with 28%. Hilton, meanwhile, is a former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron who hosted a Fox News show from 2017 to 2023. He carries Donald Trump’s endorsement.
That endorsement shaped the campaign. At the Sept. 30 CNN debate in Los Angeles, CalMatters reported that Becerra kept invoking Trump, who is unpopular in the state. When your opponent’s best-known supporter is the other side’s best argument, you run against him, not against the guy on stage.
The same dynamic shows up nationally. As we reported, Trump’s party trails by 8 points nationally, yet the Senate is still a toss-up.
Here’s the thing: it’s the economy
In the Emerson poll, 45% of voters named the economy as their top issue. Emerson says respondents put the blame on Trump. So if you are wondering why a former Fox host is trailing by 20-plus points in a state where gas and rent are not exactly cheap, that is part of the answer.
The split is also plain party loyalty. PPIC found 92% of Democrats back Becerra and 89% of Republicans back Hilton. The difference is the independents. Emerson’s executive director, Spencer Kimball, said California independents break for Becerra by 10 points, 46% to 36%. In a state with this many registered Democrats, that is not a close call.
Still, Hilton does have a few bright spots. SurveyUSA found him leading 43% to 42% among rural voters. Becerra, however, led 45% to 38% in Central California. A competitive region is not the same as a competitive race.
What the California governor election means for you
The next governor sets the state budget, signs or vetoes the bills that reach his desk and steers the response when wildfires, housing costs and gas prices hit your wallet. A 20-point margin gives Becerra a strong mandate and a Democratic Legislature to work with. Hilton’s backers, by contrast, would likely see little of their agenda become law. Either way, what lands on your rent, your utility bills and your commute starts with who holds the pen in Sacramento.
What happens next in the California governor election: dates to know
You can still vote in several ways. Ballot drop boxes opened Oct. 5, and early in-person voting began Oct. 24 in Voter’s Choice Act counties, according to the California Secretary of State. CalMatters says every county has at least one early in-person site open starting Oct. 31, and its voter guide has the details. For a local view, see how San Diego voters are rushing their ballots in.
- Nov. 3: Election Day. Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. PT.
- Nov. 10: Last day for mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to arrive and be counted.
- Dec. 3: Deadline for counties to certify results.
- Dec. 11: The Secretary of State certifies the statewide results.
Expect a slow burn. California counts mail ballots for days, so a winner may not be official on election night, and close down-ballot contests can take weeks. The governor’s race is the one least likely to keep anyone up late.
Your ballot also carries 14 propositions, which is why a lopsided top-of-ticket race is still no reason to skip it. The governor may be decided by lunchtime. The propositions, on the other hand, are where your vote can actually move something. Another statewide fight worth watching is the one over the bullet train and your tax dollars.
