A state that hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since 1994 is five days from a Senate race that polls call a toss-up. The contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton is that close. Almost every recent poll lands inside the margin of error, and none shows Paxton clearly ahead. The latest 49% to 49% dead heat between Paxton and Talarico says it all.
What the Texas Senate polls say right now
The newest numbers lean Talarico’s way, narrowly. A Texas Southern University poll reported Thursday has Talarico at 49%, Paxton at 47% and Libertarian Ted Brown at 3%. Its margin of error is about 2.2 points, so call it a dead heat with a slight tilt.
Meanwhile, a Univision poll released Tuesday shows a wider gap: Talarico 50%, Paxton 45%, with Talarico ahead 55% to 37% among Hispanic voters, according to NewsNation’s summary. We couldn’t confirm that poll’s sample size or margin of error, so treat it as one data point.
Not every pollster sees the same direction, though. The Fox News poll from Oct. 21 had the two tied at 49% among likely voters, after an earlier Fox survey had Talarico up 51% to 49%. Fox says Paxton has been consolidating conservatives, rural voters, suburban women and people who backed Sen. John Cornyn in the primary.
Emerson College had Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 46%, also inside the margin of error, The Hill reported. Pushing leaners narrows it to 49% to 48%. Even so, a Cook Political Report battleground poll had a bigger Talarico lead, 49% to 44%.
Why Texas Senate race polling worries Republicans
Zoom out, and the polling average is the story. The Washington Post’s pre-election average puts Texas at Democrat +3, in its look at the seven races that decide the Senate. Donald Trump won this state by 14 points in 2024. Averages aren’t votes, but that gap is the kind of thing party strategists lose sleep over.
Part of the explanation is the candidate. Paxton beat Cornyn in the May runoff with 63.8% of the vote after a late Trump endorsement. Cornyn became the first Texas senator denied renomination since 1970. Fox’s own polling finds Paxton’s ratings underwater by 17 points. In 2023, the Texas House impeached him on bribery and corruption charges, and the state Senate acquitted him.
Texas likely voters are also split on who should run the Senate: 49% say Democrats, 50% say Republicans, per Fox. So even a tied race doesn’t mean Republicans are in free fall. It means they can’t count on a cushion.
What the Talarico Paxton polls mean if you live in Texas
Here’s the thing for your wallet: affordability tops the issue list for Texas voters, with economic growth and jobs next, according to USA TODAY’s polling roundup. Talarico is pressing voters who are unhappy with the economy. Paxton, in turn, is tying him to national Democrats. Both messages target the same kitchen-table frustrations.
There’s a twist on the enthusiasm front. In the Fox poll, 69% of Democrats said they are extremely interested in the election, compared with 61% of Republicans. In a coin-flip race, that gap matters.
Early voting started Oct. 19, and many Texans have already voted early. Still, don’t trust anyone claiming to know who is ahead in the bank.
What to watch before Nov. 3
Three things could decide it. First, the Libertarian. Emerson’s Spencer Kimball put it plainly: if Brown’s roughly 3% melts away, “Paxton likely sees his vote share increase,” but “if it holds, Talarico benefits.” A 2% Libertarian slice can be bigger than Texas’s 2-point Senate gap, so that third-party share matters.
Second, Hispanic turnout, where Univision shows Talarico with a big lead. Third, the question Republican pollster Daron Shaw asked: “Do disaffected Republicans show up and, if so, do they grit their teeth and vote for a candidate who they have serious reservations about?”
Talarico holds a rally in Dallas tonight, and Trump campaigned in Texas this week. Election Day is Nov. 3.
So who’s ahead? With nearly every one of the Texas Senate polls inside its margin of error, the honest forecast is the boring one: nobody knows. That’s exactly why this race is on every national map.
