Two-thirds support is the kind of number that makes a campaign press release practically glow. The campaign to repeal Washington’s new millionaires tax says its latest poll shows income tax repeal surging to that level. Here’s what the poll really says, and what it doesn’t.
The numbers come from the Vote Yes Repeal the Income Tax campaign, which released the survey in a PR Newswire press release on Oct. 23. Because it’s a campaign poll, read it as the campaign’s best case.
What the poll says about income tax repeal
NMR Research surveyed voters in two congressional districts on Oct. 18 and 19. In total, that’s 188 voters in the 8th District and 222 in the 5th. Margins of error are about 9.5 points and 7 points.
Voters saw one of two wordings of Initiative 645. The official ballot language drew a narrow lead for repeal: 48% to 43% in the 8th and 46% to 43% in the 5th. With the campaign’s own plain description, however, repeal jumped to 67% in the 8th and 62% in the 5th.
That’s a big swing. Still, it’s a swing in wording, not proof that voters changed their minds over time. The campaign calls it “real-time tracking,” yet the research shows a split test. Different people read different text.
Who pays if you repeal the income tax
The campaign’s pitch is that this is an income tax coming for everyone. The law on the books says otherwise. The tax is a flat 9.9% on taxable income above $1 million per household, and a married couple shares a single $1 million deduction.
Supporters of the tax say it would touch less than 1% of residents. Cascade PBS reports that experts expect it to raise more than $3 billion a year. Meanwhile, Gov. Bob Ferguson signed it on March 30 and has said he would block any attempt to tax incomes under $1 million.
The “everyone” claim is a prediction, not current law. Repeal backers argue the threshold will eventually drop, as income taxes have a way of doing. Opponents of repeal, on the other hand, point to the governor’s pledge and the high bar written into the law.
Both sides are arguing about the future, so treat their certainty with a grain of salt.
Why wording decides the Washington income tax vote
The campaign says the official ballot language is biased. Opponents of repeal say the plain description leaves out what repeal would cost. In fact, the Attorney General’s fiscal statement says repeal would reduce funding for schools, higher education and health care. The campaign disputes that.
Spokesperson Jaime Herrera Beutler, a former congresswoman, put it this way: “You can’t cut money you don’t have, and not a dime of this tax is collected until 2029.” That much is true. The tax starts in 2028, with first returns due in 2029.
Another poll complicates the picture. An independent DHM Research survey of 800 Washington residents found 44% opposed to I-645 and 40% in favor when the ballot sentence was left out. That’s the opposite lean from the campaign’s numbers, and it shows why any income tax repeal poll deserves a close read. Our look at how voters agree on policy in swing areas shows how much question wording can shape results.
What this poll can’t tell you
So what does the poll prove? Not as much as the headline number suggests.
- It covers two districts and about 410 voters. It is not a statewide number.
- The 67% figure comes from the 8th District alone, with the widest margin of error.
- There’s no trend line. Under the official wording, repeal led only narrowly, so nothing here shows support collapsing.
- The release doesn’t publish the plain-description wording or NMR’s methodology.
It also cites “several polls conducted earlier this year” showing about 67% opposed to a state income tax. The release doesn’t name them, so I can’t tell you what they asked. For comparison, a national policy fight like Trump’s health plan shows how much the framing of a proposal can drive the numbers.
What happens next if voters repeal Initiative 645
Ballots are out now and are due Nov. 3. A yes vote to repeal Initiative 645 ends the millionaires tax and bars state and local taxes on individual income. A no vote keeps the tax on schedule. Either way, a lawsuit claiming the tax violates the state constitution is still pending.
Here’s the thing: Washington is one of nine states with no income tax, so observers will watch the result well beyond Olympia. For anyone weighing where to live or earn, this is the vote that sets the direction. Markets are also jittery right now, as our piece on the 10-year yield falling below 5% explains.
The campaign may be right that voters hate income taxes. It just hasn’t proven it with a poll this small, written this way.
Ballots land on Nov. 3, and that count is the only poll that matters.
